Ebook: Applications of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems

Climate variability has major impacts in many parts of the world, including Australia. Developments in understanding of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation Phenomenon have introduced some skill in seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasting. Can this skill be harnessed to advantage? Or do we just continue to observe these impacts? How does a decision-maker managing an agricultural or natural ecosystem modify decisions in response to a skillful, but imprecise, seasonal climate forecast? Using Australian experience as a basis, this book focuses on these questions in pursuing means to better manage climate risks. The state of the science in climate forecasting is reviewed before considering detailed examples of applications to:

1. farm scale agricultural decisions (such as management of cropping and grazing systems);
2. regional and national scale agricultural decisions (such as commodity trading and government policy); and
3. natural systems (such as water resources, pests and diseases, and natural fauna).

Many of the examples highlight the participatory and inter-disciplinary approach required among decision-makers, resource systems scientists/analysts, and climate scientists to bring about the effective applications. The experiences discussed provide valuable insights beyond the geographical and disciplinary focus of this book. The book is ideally suited to professionals and postgraduate students in ecology, agricultural climatology, environmental planning, and climate science.

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Climate variability has major impacts in many parts of the world, including Australia. Developments in understanding of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation Phenomenon have introduced some skill in seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasting. Can this skill be harnessed to advantage? Or do we just continue to observe these impacts? How does a decision-maker managing an agricultural or natural ecosystem modify decisions in response to a skillful, but imprecise, seasonal climate forecast? Using Australian experience as a basis, this book focuses on these questions in pursuing means to better manage climate risks. The state of the science in climate forecasting is reviewed before considering detailed examples of applications to:

1. farm scale agricultural decisions (such as management of cropping and grazing systems);
2. regional and national scale agricultural decisions (such as commodity trading and government policy); and
3. natural systems (such as water resources, pests and diseases, and natural fauna).

Many of the examples highlight the participatory and inter-disciplinary approach required among decision-makers, resource systems scientists/analysts, and climate scientists to bring about the effective applications. The experiences discussed provide valuable insights beyond the geographical and disciplinary focus of this book. The book is ideally suited to professionals and postgraduate students in ecology, agricultural climatology, environmental planning, and climate science.

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Climate variability has major impacts in many parts of the world, including Australia. Developments in understanding of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation Phenomenon have introduced some skill in seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasting. Can this skill be harnessed to advantage? Or do we just continue to observe these impacts? How does a decision-maker managing an agricultural or natural ecosystem modify decisions in response to a skillful, but imprecise, seasonal climate forecast? Using Australian experience as a basis, this book focuses on these questions in pursuing means to better manage climate risks. The state of the science in climate forecasting is reviewed before considering detailed examples of applications to:

1. farm scale agricultural decisions (such as management of cropping and grazing systems);
2. regional and national scale agricultural decisions (such as commodity trading and government policy); and
3. natural systems (such as water resources, pests and diseases, and natural fauna).

Many of the examples highlight the participatory and inter-disciplinary approach required among decision-makers, resource systems scientists/analysts, and climate scientists to bring about the effective applications. The experiences discussed provide valuable insights beyond the geographical and disciplinary focus of this book. The book is ideally suited to professionals and postgraduate students in ecology, agricultural climatology, environmental planning, and climate science.
Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-xiv
The Importance of Climate Variability and Seasonal Forecasting to the Australian Economy....Pages 1-22
The Relevance of Seasonal Climate Forecasting to a Rural Producer....Pages 23-28
Understanding and Predicting the World’s Climate System....Pages 29-50
A General Systems Approach to Applying Seasonal Climate Forecasts....Pages 51-65
The Development and Delivery of Current Seasonal Climate Forecasting Capabilities in Australia....Pages 67-75
The Potential for Improved Statistical Seasonal Climate Forecasts....Pages 77-87
Global Climatic Models and Their Potential for Seasonal Climatic Forecasting....Pages 89-107
Operational Experience with Climate Model Predictions....Pages 109-119
Stochastic Down-Scaling of General Circulation Model Simulations....Pages 121-134
Statistical Methods for Deriving Seasonal Climate Forecasts from GCM’S....Pages 135-147
Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Manage Dryland Crops in Northern Australia — Experiences from the 1997/98 Seasons....Pages 149-165
The Potential Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Managing Cropping Systems....Pages 167-181
Comparing the Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasting Systems in Managing Cropping Systems....Pages 183-195
Managing Climatic Variability in Queensland’s Grazing Lands — New Approaches....Pages 197-226
Simulation of Grazing Strategies for Beef Production in North-East Queensland....Pages 227-252
Managing Climate Variability in Grazing Enterprises: A Case Study of Dalrymple Shire, North-Eastern Australia....Pages 253-270
Seasonal Climate Forecasting and the Management of Rangelands: Do Production Benefits Translate into Enterprise Profits?....Pages 271-289
Building Knowledge and Skills to Use Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Property Management Planning....Pages 291-307
Opportunities to Improve the Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts....Pages 309-327
Aussie Grass: Australian Grassland and Rangeland Assessment by Spatial Simulation....Pages 329-349
Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Forecasting the Australian Wheat Crop....Pages 351-366
Can Seasonal Climate Forecasts Predict Movements in Grain Prices?....Pages 367-380
Climate Variability, Seasonal Forecasting and Invertebrate Pests — The Need for a Synoptic View....Pages 381-397
ENSO Regulation of Indo-Pacific Green Turtle Populations....Pages 399-408
Streamflow Variability, Seasonal Forecasting and Water Resources Systems....Pages 409-428
The Effect of Climate on the Incidence of Vector-Borne Viral Diseases in Australia: The Potential Value of Seasonal Forecasting....Pages 429-452
Applying Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems — A Synthesis....Pages 453-462
Back Matter....Pages 463-471

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Climate variability has major impacts in many parts of the world, including Australia. Developments in understanding of the El Nino - Southern Oscillation Phenomenon have introduced some skill in seasonal to inter-annual climate forecasting. Can this skill be harnessed to advantage? Or do we just continue to observe these impacts? How does a decision-maker managing an agricultural or natural ecosystem modify decisions in response to a skillful, but imprecise, seasonal climate forecast? Using Australian experience as a basis, this book focuses on these questions in pursuing means to better manage climate risks. The state of the science in climate forecasting is reviewed before considering detailed examples of applications to:

1. farm scale agricultural decisions (such as management of cropping and grazing systems);
2. regional and national scale agricultural decisions (such as commodity trading and government policy); and
3. natural systems (such as water resources, pests and diseases, and natural fauna).

Many of the examples highlight the participatory and inter-disciplinary approach required among decision-makers, resource systems scientists/analysts, and climate scientists to bring about the effective applications. The experiences discussed provide valuable insights beyond the geographical and disciplinary focus of this book. The book is ideally suited to professionals and postgraduate students in ecology, agricultural climatology, environmental planning, and climate science.
Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-xiv
The Importance of Climate Variability and Seasonal Forecasting to the Australian Economy....Pages 1-22
The Relevance of Seasonal Climate Forecasting to a Rural Producer....Pages 23-28
Understanding and Predicting the World’s Climate System....Pages 29-50
A General Systems Approach to Applying Seasonal Climate Forecasts....Pages 51-65
The Development and Delivery of Current Seasonal Climate Forecasting Capabilities in Australia....Pages 67-75
The Potential for Improved Statistical Seasonal Climate Forecasts....Pages 77-87
Global Climatic Models and Their Potential for Seasonal Climatic Forecasting....Pages 89-107
Operational Experience with Climate Model Predictions....Pages 109-119
Stochastic Down-Scaling of General Circulation Model Simulations....Pages 121-134
Statistical Methods for Deriving Seasonal Climate Forecasts from GCM’S....Pages 135-147
Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts to Manage Dryland Crops in Northern Australia — Experiences from the 1997/98 Seasons....Pages 149-165
The Potential Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasting in Managing Cropping Systems....Pages 167-181
Comparing the Value of Seasonal Climate Forecasting Systems in Managing Cropping Systems....Pages 183-195
Managing Climatic Variability in Queensland’s Grazing Lands — New Approaches....Pages 197-226
Simulation of Grazing Strategies for Beef Production in North-East Queensland....Pages 227-252
Managing Climate Variability in Grazing Enterprises: A Case Study of Dalrymple Shire, North-Eastern Australia....Pages 253-270
Seasonal Climate Forecasting and the Management of Rangelands: Do Production Benefits Translate into Enterprise Profits?....Pages 271-289
Building Knowledge and Skills to Use Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Property Management Planning....Pages 291-307
Opportunities to Improve the Use of Seasonal Climate Forecasts....Pages 309-327
Aussie Grass: Australian Grassland and Rangeland Assessment by Spatial Simulation....Pages 329-349
Using Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Forecasting the Australian Wheat Crop....Pages 351-366
Can Seasonal Climate Forecasts Predict Movements in Grain Prices?....Pages 367-380
Climate Variability, Seasonal Forecasting and Invertebrate Pests — The Need for a Synoptic View....Pages 381-397
ENSO Regulation of Indo-Pacific Green Turtle Populations....Pages 399-408
Streamflow Variability, Seasonal Forecasting and Water Resources Systems....Pages 409-428
The Effect of Climate on the Incidence of Vector-Borne Viral Diseases in Australia: The Potential Value of Seasonal Forecasting....Pages 429-452
Applying Seasonal Climate Forecasts in Agricultural and Natural Ecosystems — A Synthesis....Pages 453-462
Back Matter....Pages 463-471
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