Ebook: The Changing Carbon Cycle: A Global Analysis

The United States Government, cognizant of its responsibilities to future generations, has been sponsoring research for nine years into the causes, effects, and potential impacts of increased concentrations of carbon dioxide (C0 ) in the atmosphere. Agencies such as the National Science Foun­ 2 dation, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) cooperatively spent about $100 million from FY 1978 through FY 1984 directly on the study of CO • The DOE, as the 2 lead government agency for coordinating the government' s research ef­ forts, has been responsible for about 60% of these research efforts. William James succinctly defined our purpose when he stated science must be based upon " ... irreducible and stubborn facts." Scientific knowledge can and will reduce the present significant uncertainty sur­ rounding our understanding of the causes, effects, and potential impacts of increasing atmospheric CO2• We have come far during the past seven years in resolving some underlyinig doubts and in narrowing the ranges of disagreement. Basic concepts have become less murky. Yet, much more must be accomplished; more irreducible and stubborn facts are needed to reduce the uncertainties so that we can improve our knowledge base. Uncertainty can never be reduced to zero. However, with a much improved knowledge base, we will be able to learn, under­ stand, and be in a position to make decisions.

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Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-xxvi
The Global Atmospheric CO2 Distribution 1968–1983: Interpretation of the Results of the NOAA/GMCC Measurement Program....Pages 1-15
Simulating the Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide Distribution with a Three-Dimensional Tracer Model....Pages 16-49
Presentation of the 20th Century Atmospheric CO2 Record in Smithsonian Spectrographic Plates....Pages 50-65
Atmospheric CO2 Record from Direct Chemical Measurements During the 19th Century....Pages 66-88
Review of the History of Atmospheric CO2 Recorded in Ice Cores....Pages 89-108
Ancient Carbon Cycle Changes Derived from Tree-Ring 13C and 14C....Pages 109-124
Interpretation of the Northern Hemispheric Record of 13C/12C Trends of Atmospheric CO2 in Tree Rings....Pages 125-150
Revised Estimates of Atmospheric CO2 Variations Based on the Tree-Ring 13C Record....Pages 151-159
Carbon Isotope Measurements in Baseline Air, Forest Canopy Air, and Plants....Pages 160-174
Estimating Changes in the Carbon Content of Terrestrial Ecosystems from Historical Data....Pages 175-193
Changes in Soil Carbon Storage and Associated Properties with Disturbance and Recovery....Pages 194-220
Continental and Global Scale Remote Sensing of Land Cover....Pages 221-241
Changes in the Area of Forests in Rondonia, Amazon Basin, Measured by Satellite Imagery....Pages 242-257
One-Dimensional and Two-Dimensional Ocean Models for Predicting the Distribution of CO2 Between the Ocean and the Atmosphere....Pages 258-278
Three-Dimensional Ocean Models for Predicting the Distribution of CO2 Between the Ocean and Atmosphere....Pages 279-294
Calibrating Ocean Models by the Constrained Inverse Method....Pages 295-328
Chemical and Biological Processes in CO2-Ocean Models....Pages 329-347
Measurements of Total Carbon Dioxide and Alkalinity in the North Atlantic Ocean in 1981....Pages 348-370
Geologic Analogs: Their Value and Limitations in Carbon Dioxide Research....Pages 371-402
Requirements for a Satisfactory Model of the Global Carbon Cycle and Current Status of Modeling Efforts....Pages 403-424
The Use of Observations in Calibrating and Validating Carbon Cycle Models....Pages 425-458
Analysis of the Seasonal and Geographical Patterns of Atmospheric CO2 Distributions with a Three-Dimensional Tracer Model....Pages 459-473
Distribution and Quantitative Assessment of World Crude-Oil Reserves and Resources....Pages 474-490
Long-Term Energy Projections and Novel Energy Systems....Pages 491-507
Atmospheric CO2 Projections with Globally Averaged Carbon Cycle Models....Pages 508-533
Possible Changes in Future Use of Fossil Fuels to Limit Environmental Effects....Pages 534-560
Back Matter....Pages 561-574
....Pages 575-592