Ebook: Economic Modelling in the OECD Countries

among the 159 member countries of the United Nations Organization which are treated as country units, while smaller countries are grouped together in regions. The number of equations used is approximately 13 700, while the number of software steps for computation is approximately 100000. Computation, including tabulation, can nevertheless be performed very rapidly, and only about 20 minutes is required to make forecasts from the present up to the year 2000. The FUGI model is at present being used by the Projections and Perspectives Studies Branch, Department of International Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations, for simulations of United Nations medium- and long-term international development strategies, while the Project LINK model is being used for short-term forecasts (Onishi, 1985). Stimulated by our latest joint research with the United Nations University on a 'global early warning system for displaced persions', we have felt the need for our FUGI model to go beyond its present capacities centred on an 'economic' model (in the rather traditional, restricted sense of the term) and to develop into a model that can in the future analyse 'global problematiques' or 'global complexes of symptoms' and complicated questions including various types of environmental problems and the sorts of displaced persons issues to which we are now directing our attention. We are thus expanding the scope of our fifth-generation FUGI model, presently under development, to deal with such issues.

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Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-xvii
The LINK model and its use in international scenario analysis....Pages 1-10
Projections of the OECD economies in the global perspective, 1986-2000: policy simulations by the FUGI global macroeconomic model....Pages 11-30
Supply-side policies in four OECD countries....Pages 31-51
An empirical analysis of policy co-ordination in the United States, Japan and Europe....Pages 53-70
How much could the international co-ordination of economic policies achieve? An example from US-EEC policy-making....Pages 71-100
Capital risk and models of investment behaviour....Pages 103-117
Adjustment costs and mean-variance efficiency in UK financial markets....Pages 119-140
The macroeconomic and sectoral effects of the Economic Recovery Tax Act: some simulation results....Pages 141-164
Use of anticipations data in the anticipations model....Pages 165-182
An endogenously time-varying parameter (TVP) model of investment behaviour: theory and application to Belgian data....Pages 183-201
Budget consolidation,effective demand and employment....Pages 203-218
Interaction between economic growth and financial flows: presentation of a model analysing the impact of short-term financial disturbances on economic growth....Pages 219-243
Asymmetry in conservation: a capital stock analysis....Pages 245-264
Adjustment options for the US economy....Pages 265-282
Model building for decision aid in the agri-economic field....Pages 283-311
Estimated optimal lags for the optimization of models: a method for estimating the optimal lag between economic variables: Part IV....Pages 313-326
Macroeconomic policy and aggregate supply in the UK....Pages 327-352
Two recent trends combined in an econometric model for the Netherlands: the supply-side and sectoral approach....Pages 353-380
The supply side of RIKMOD: Short-run producer behaviour in a model of monopolistic competition....Pages 381-405
Direct interventions, interest rate shocks and monetary disturbances in the Canadian foreign exchange market: a simulation study....Pages 407-455
Effects of a fall in the price of oil: the case of a small oil-exporting country....Pages 457-471
Modelling the effects of investment subsidies....Pages 473-490
Collective bargaining and macroeconomic performance: the case of West Germany....Pages 491-506
A cost-push model of galloping inflation: the case of Yugoslavia....Pages 507-538
Short-term forecasting of wages, employment and output in Barbados....Pages 539-559
Reducing working time for reducing unemployment? A macroeconomic simulation study for the Belgian economy....Pages 561-608
An econometric model for the determination of banking system excess reserves....Pages 609-651
Forecasting versus policy analysis with the ORANI model....Pages 653-666
An applied general equilibrium model of the United States economy....Pages 667-682
A quarterly econometric model for the Spanish economy....Pages 683-712
Macroeconomic policies and adjustment in Yugoslavia: some counterfactual simulations....Pages 713-730
Back Matter....Pages 731-746

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Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-xvii
The LINK model and its use in international scenario analysis....Pages 1-10
Projections of the OECD economies in the global perspective, 1986-2000: policy simulations by the FUGI global macroeconomic model....Pages 11-30
Supply-side policies in four OECD countries....Pages 31-51
An empirical analysis of policy co-ordination in the United States, Japan and Europe....Pages 53-70
How much could the international co-ordination of economic policies achieve? An example from US-EEC policy-making....Pages 71-100
Capital risk and models of investment behaviour....Pages 103-117
Adjustment costs and mean-variance efficiency in UK financial markets....Pages 119-140
The macroeconomic and sectoral effects of the Economic Recovery Tax Act: some simulation results....Pages 141-164
Use of anticipations data in the anticipations model....Pages 165-182
An endogenously time-varying parameter (TVP) model of investment behaviour: theory and application to Belgian data....Pages 183-201
Budget consolidation,effective demand and employment....Pages 203-218
Interaction between economic growth and financial flows: presentation of a model analysing the impact of short-term financial disturbances on economic growth....Pages 219-243
Asymmetry in conservation: a capital stock analysis....Pages 245-264
Adjustment options for the US economy....Pages 265-282
Model building for decision aid in the agri-economic field....Pages 283-311
Estimated optimal lags for the optimization of models: a method for estimating the optimal lag between economic variables: Part IV....Pages 313-326
Macroeconomic policy and aggregate supply in the UK....Pages 327-352
Two recent trends combined in an econometric model for the Netherlands: the supply-side and sectoral approach....Pages 353-380
The supply side of RIKMOD: Short-run producer behaviour in a model of monopolistic competition....Pages 381-405
Direct interventions, interest rate shocks and monetary disturbances in the Canadian foreign exchange market: a simulation study....Pages 407-455
Effects of a fall in the price of oil: the case of a small oil-exporting country....Pages 457-471
Modelling the effects of investment subsidies....Pages 473-490
Collective bargaining and macroeconomic performance: the case of West Germany....Pages 491-506
A cost-push model of galloping inflation: the case of Yugoslavia....Pages 507-538
Short-term forecasting of wages, employment and output in Barbados....Pages 539-559
Reducing working time for reducing unemployment? A macroeconomic simulation study for the Belgian economy....Pages 561-608
An econometric model for the determination of banking system excess reserves....Pages 609-651
Forecasting versus policy analysis with the ORANI model....Pages 653-666
An applied general equilibrium model of the United States economy....Pages 667-682
A quarterly econometric model for the Spanish economy....Pages 683-712
Macroeconomic policies and adjustment in Yugoslavia: some counterfactual simulations....Pages 713-730
Back Matter....Pages 731-746
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