Ebook: Uncertainty in Risk Assessment, Risk Management, and Decision Making

The subject of this volume--uncertainties in risk assessment and management--reflects an important theme in health, safety, and environ­ mental decision making. MOst technological hazards are characterized by substantial uncertainty. Recent examples include nuclear waste disposal, acid rain, asbestos in schools, carcinogens in food, and hazardous waste. realing with such uncertainty is arguably the most difficult and challeng­ ing task facing risk assessors and managers today. Four primary sources of uncertainty in risk assessment and management can be identified: (1) uncertainties about definitions; (2) uncertainties about scientific facts; (3) uncertainties about risk perceptions and atti­ tudes; and (4) uncertainties about values. Uncertainties about definitions derive primarily from disagreements about the meaning and interpretation of key concepts, such as probability. Uncertainties about scientific facts derive primarily from disagreements about failure modes, the probability and magnitude of adverse health or environmental consequences, cause and effect relationships, dose-response relationships, and exposure patterns. Uncertainties about risk perceptions and attitudes derive primarily from disagreements about what constitutes a significant or acceptable level of risk. Uncertainties about values derive primarily from disagreements about the desirability or worth of alternative risk management actions or conse­ quences. The papers in this volume address each of these sources of uncertainty from a variety of perspectives. Reflecting the broad scope of risk assess­ ment and risk management research, the papers include contributions from safety engineers, epidemiologists, toxicologists, chemists, biostatisticians, biologists, decision analysts, economists, psychologists, political scien­ tists, sociologists, ethicists, and lawyers.

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Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-x
Policy Issues Related to Worst Case Risk Analyses and the Establishment of Acceptable Standards of De Minimis Risk....Pages 1-26
Studies on the Applicability of NSF/PRA Sponsored Research to the Management of Specific Risk Situations....Pages 27-38
Divergent Approaches to Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Mathematical Expression Compared to Circumstantial Evidence....Pages 39-51
Managing Technological Risks: U.S. and Japanese Approaches....Pages 53-61
Risk Management, Assessment, and Acceptability....Pages 63-70
Risk Appraisal — Can It Be Improved by Formal Decision Models?....Pages 71-87
Insurance Market Assessment of Technological Risks....Pages 89-102
Public Recognition of Hazard....Pages 103-116
Managing Differences in Individual Risk Perceptions: A Pilot Experiment to Integrate Individual Perceptions....Pages 117-121
Stress from Risk Uncertainties....Pages 123-128
The Industry — Regulatory Interactive Process for Resolution of Severe Accident Questions for Nuclear Power....Pages 129-133
The Bureaucratic Dimension to Risk Analysis: The Ultimate Uncertainty....Pages 135-143
Risk Assessment and the Law: Evolving Criteria by Which Carcinogenicity Risk Assessments are Evaluated in the Legal Community....Pages 145-157
Estimating the Risk from Flooding and Evaluating Worry....Pages 159-176
Communicating Uncertainty for Regulatory Decisions....Pages 177-187
The Reliability of Individual and Pooled Expert Judgments....Pages 189-206
Learning from the Blind Men and the Elephant, or Seeing Things Whole in Risk Management....Pages 207-212
Value and Function of Information in Risk Management....Pages 213-220
Communicating Scientific Information About Health and Environmental Risks: Problems and Opportunities from a Social and Behavioral Perspective....Pages 221-239
Risk Analysis or Risk Assessment; A Proposal for Consistent Definitions....Pages 241-249
Exposure to Electromagnetic Fields and Brain Tumors....Pages 251-264
Uncertainty in Population Risk Estimates for Environmental Contaminants....Pages 265-285
Analysis of Uncertainties in CRAC2 Calculations: The Inhalation Pathway....Pages 287-303
Auditing Waste Disposal Facilities....Pages 305-318
Analysis of Uncertainties in CRAC2 Calculations: Wet Deposition and Plume Rise....Pages 319-323
Use of Health Effect Risk Estimates and Uncertainty in Formal Regulatory Proceedings: A Case Study Involving Atmospheric Particulates....Pages 325-338
Application of Estimated Excess Lifetime Cancer Risk in Field Situations....Pages 339-347
Model Uncertainty: Implications for Animal Low-Dose Cancer Risk Assessment Experiments....Pages 349-361
Multiple Time Measures are Necessary to Reduce Uncertainty in Dose-Response Modeling: Time- and Dose-Mechanisms of the ED01 Study....Pages 363-373
4,4’-Methylenedianiline: Risk Assessment and Risk Management....Pages 375-387
Fuzzy Hierarchical Analysis....Pages 389-401
Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor (LMFBR) Risk Assessment....Pages 403-419
Examining the Realities of Risk Management....Pages 421-433
Integrated Economic Risk Management in a Nuclear Power Plant....Pages 435-443
The Oreda Handbook and Its Role in Offshore Risk Analysis....Pages 445-456
Warning Systems: Response Models and Optimization....Pages 457-468
Uncertainty Analysis as Applied to Probabilistic Risk Assessment....Pages 469-478
Analysis of Risks of Diversion of Plutonium or Highly Enriched Uranium....Pages 479-489
An Assessment of the Risk to Plant Personnel and the Public from Petroleum Refinery Accidents....Pages 491-509
Incompleteness in Data Bases: Impact on Parameter Estimation Uncertainty....Pages 511-521
Back Matter....Pages 537-538
Risk Assessment of Hazardous Material Transportation....Pages 523-535

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Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-x
Policy Issues Related to Worst Case Risk Analyses and the Establishment of Acceptable Standards of De Minimis Risk....Pages 1-26
Studies on the Applicability of NSF/PRA Sponsored Research to the Management of Specific Risk Situations....Pages 27-38
Divergent Approaches to Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: Mathematical Expression Compared to Circumstantial Evidence....Pages 39-51
Managing Technological Risks: U.S. and Japanese Approaches....Pages 53-61
Risk Management, Assessment, and Acceptability....Pages 63-70
Risk Appraisal — Can It Be Improved by Formal Decision Models?....Pages 71-87
Insurance Market Assessment of Technological Risks....Pages 89-102
Public Recognition of Hazard....Pages 103-116
Managing Differences in Individual Risk Perceptions: A Pilot Experiment to Integrate Individual Perceptions....Pages 117-121
Stress from Risk Uncertainties....Pages 123-128
The Industry — Regulatory Interactive Process for Resolution of Severe Accident Questions for Nuclear Power....Pages 129-133
The Bureaucratic Dimension to Risk Analysis: The Ultimate Uncertainty....Pages 135-143
Risk Assessment and the Law: Evolving Criteria by Which Carcinogenicity Risk Assessments are Evaluated in the Legal Community....Pages 145-157
Estimating the Risk from Flooding and Evaluating Worry....Pages 159-176
Communicating Uncertainty for Regulatory Decisions....Pages 177-187
The Reliability of Individual and Pooled Expert Judgments....Pages 189-206
Learning from the Blind Men and the Elephant, or Seeing Things Whole in Risk Management....Pages 207-212
Value and Function of Information in Risk Management....Pages 213-220
Communicating Scientific Information About Health and Environmental Risks: Problems and Opportunities from a Social and Behavioral Perspective....Pages 221-239
Risk Analysis or Risk Assessment; A Proposal for Consistent Definitions....Pages 241-249
Exposure to Electromagnetic Fields and Brain Tumors....Pages 251-264
Uncertainty in Population Risk Estimates for Environmental Contaminants....Pages 265-285
Analysis of Uncertainties in CRAC2 Calculations: The Inhalation Pathway....Pages 287-303
Auditing Waste Disposal Facilities....Pages 305-318
Analysis of Uncertainties in CRAC2 Calculations: Wet Deposition and Plume Rise....Pages 319-323
Use of Health Effect Risk Estimates and Uncertainty in Formal Regulatory Proceedings: A Case Study Involving Atmospheric Particulates....Pages 325-338
Application of Estimated Excess Lifetime Cancer Risk in Field Situations....Pages 339-347
Model Uncertainty: Implications for Animal Low-Dose Cancer Risk Assessment Experiments....Pages 349-361
Multiple Time Measures are Necessary to Reduce Uncertainty in Dose-Response Modeling: Time- and Dose-Mechanisms of the ED01 Study....Pages 363-373
4,4’-Methylenedianiline: Risk Assessment and Risk Management....Pages 375-387
Fuzzy Hierarchical Analysis....Pages 389-401
Liquid Metal Fast Breeder Reactor (LMFBR) Risk Assessment....Pages 403-419
Examining the Realities of Risk Management....Pages 421-433
Integrated Economic Risk Management in a Nuclear Power Plant....Pages 435-443
The Oreda Handbook and Its Role in Offshore Risk Analysis....Pages 445-456
Warning Systems: Response Models and Optimization....Pages 457-468
Uncertainty Analysis as Applied to Probabilistic Risk Assessment....Pages 469-478
Analysis of Risks of Diversion of Plutonium or Highly Enriched Uranium....Pages 479-489
An Assessment of the Risk to Plant Personnel and the Public from Petroleum Refinery Accidents....Pages 491-509
Incompleteness in Data Bases: Impact on Parameter Estimation Uncertainty....Pages 511-521
Back Matter....Pages 537-538
Risk Assessment of Hazardous Material Transportation....Pages 523-535
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