Ebook: Forecasting the Internet: Understanding the Explosive Growth of Data Communications

David O. Loomis Illinois State University The explosive growth of the Internet has caught most industry experts off guard. While data communications was expected to be the "wave of the future," few industry observers foresaw how rapid the change in focus from voice communications towards data would be. Understanding the data communications revolution has become an urgent priority for many in the telecommunications industry. Demand analysis and forecasting are critical tools to understanding these trends for both Internet access and Internet backbone service. Businesses have led residential customers in the demand for data services, but residential demand is currently increasing exponentiall y. Even as business demand for data communications is becoming better understood, residential broadband access demand is still largely unexplored. Cable modems and ADSL appear to be the current residential broadband choices yet demand elasticities and econometric model-based forecasts for these services are not currently available. The responsiveness of customers to price and income changes and customer's perceptions of the tradeoff in product characteristics between cable modems and ADSL is largely unknown. Demand for Internet access is derived from the demand for applications which utilize this access; access is not demanded independent of its usage. Thus it is important to understand Internet applications in order to understand the demand for access.

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This book intends to provide leading research in the area of empirical Internet forecasting, demand analysis, pricing and planning. The purpose of this book is to educate the reader about how traditional analytic techniques can be used to access Internet growth and how new approaches can better address the pricing, planning and regulatory issues of Internet growth. The research presented focuses on forecasts of Internet access and applications and planning and pricing tools for telecommunication providers.
The scope of this volume includes residential demand for Internet access and applications, Internet pricing and regulatory policy, and new analytical forecasting techniques. The book addresses some of the most critical questions facing the industry such as the impact of data communications on traditional voice networks, growth rates for Internet usage and access, pricing and planning for network growth.
With the magnitude of changes affecting the telecommunications industry, there is a critical need for research addressing demand analysis and forecasting. Industry personnel, regulators and policymakers are all looking to understand new services, new techniques, and new ways to succeed in an ever-changing environment. This book fills some of the void in research addressing these crucial problems.

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This book intends to provide leading research in the area of empirical Internet forecasting, demand analysis, pricing and planning. The purpose of this book is to educate the reader about how traditional analytic techniques can be used to access Internet growth and how new approaches can better address the pricing, planning and regulatory issues of Internet growth. The research presented focuses on forecasts of Internet access and applications and planning and pricing tools for telecommunication providers.
The scope of this volume includes residential demand for Internet access and applications, Internet pricing and regulatory policy, and new analytical forecasting techniques. The book addresses some of the most critical questions facing the industry such as the impact of data communications on traditional voice networks, growth rates for Internet usage and access, pricing and planning for network growth.
With the magnitude of changes affecting the telecommunications industry, there is a critical need for research addressing demand analysis and forecasting. Industry personnel, regulators and policymakers are all looking to understand new services, new techniques, and new ways to succeed in an ever-changing environment. This book fills some of the void in research addressing these crucial problems.
Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-xv
Introduction....Pages 1-4
Forecasting the Internet....Pages 5-9
The Demand for High-Speed Access to the Internet:....Pages 11-22
What Drives Internet Demand in the UK?....Pages 23-44
Forecasts for Internet/Online Access....Pages 45-58
Forecasting the Residential Data-Wave....Pages 59-79
On Forecasting the Demand for E-Commerce....Pages 81-103
Internet Forecasting and the Economics of Networks....Pages 105-130
Bandwith Forecasting: A Techno-Economic Approach....Pages 131-146
The Increasing Importance of Broadband Services and Its Reflection in European Telecommunications Regulation....Pages 147-186
The Internet: Market and Regulatory Conundrums....Pages 187-216
U. S. Broadband Pricing and Alternatives for Internet Service Providers....Pages 217-243
Back Matter....Pages 245-250

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This book intends to provide leading research in the area of empirical Internet forecasting, demand analysis, pricing and planning. The purpose of this book is to educate the reader about how traditional analytic techniques can be used to access Internet growth and how new approaches can better address the pricing, planning and regulatory issues of Internet growth. The research presented focuses on forecasts of Internet access and applications and planning and pricing tools for telecommunication providers.
The scope of this volume includes residential demand for Internet access and applications, Internet pricing and regulatory policy, and new analytical forecasting techniques. The book addresses some of the most critical questions facing the industry such as the impact of data communications on traditional voice networks, growth rates for Internet usage and access, pricing and planning for network growth.
With the magnitude of changes affecting the telecommunications industry, there is a critical need for research addressing demand analysis and forecasting. Industry personnel, regulators and policymakers are all looking to understand new services, new techniques, and new ways to succeed in an ever-changing environment. This book fills some of the void in research addressing these crucial problems.
Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-xv
Introduction....Pages 1-4
Forecasting the Internet....Pages 5-9
The Demand for High-Speed Access to the Internet:....Pages 11-22
What Drives Internet Demand in the UK?....Pages 23-44
Forecasts for Internet/Online Access....Pages 45-58
Forecasting the Residential Data-Wave....Pages 59-79
On Forecasting the Demand for E-Commerce....Pages 81-103
Internet Forecasting and the Economics of Networks....Pages 105-130
Bandwith Forecasting: A Techno-Economic Approach....Pages 131-146
The Increasing Importance of Broadband Services and Its Reflection in European Telecommunications Regulation....Pages 147-186
The Internet: Market and Regulatory Conundrums....Pages 187-216
U. S. Broadband Pricing and Alternatives for Internet Service Providers....Pages 217-243
Back Matter....Pages 245-250
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