Ebook: Beliefs, Interactions and Preferences in Decision Making

Beliefs, Interactions and Preferences in Decision Making mixes a selection of papers, presented at the Eighth Foundations and Applications of Utility and Risk Theory (`FUR VIII') conference in Mons, Belgium, together with a few solicited papers from well-known authors in the field.
This book addresses some of the questions that have recently emerged in the research on decision-making and risk theory. In particular, authors have modeled more and more as interactions between the individual and the environment or between different individuals the emergence of beliefs as well as the specific type of information treatment traditionally called `rationality'. This book analyzes several cases of such an interaction and derives consequences for the future of decision theory and risk theory.
In the last ten years, modeling beliefs has become a specific sub-field of decision making, particularly with respect to low probability events. Rational decision making has also been generalized in order to encompass, in new ways and in more general situations than it used to be fitted to, multiple dimensions in consequences. This book deals with some of the most conspicuous of these advances.
It also addresses the difficult question to incorporate several of these recent advances simultaneously into one single decision model. And it offers perspectives about the future trends of modeling such complex decision questions.
The volume is organized in three main blocks:

• The first block is the more `traditional' one. It deals with new extensions of the existing theory, as is always demanded by scientists in the field.
• A second block handles specific elements in the development of interactions between individuals and their environment, as defined in the most general sense.
• The last block confronts real-world problems in both financial and non-financial markets and decisions, and tries to show what kind of contributions can be brought to them by the type of research reported on here.

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Beliefs, Interactions and Preferences in Decision Making mixes a selection of papers, presented at the Eighth Foundations and Applications of Utility and Risk Theory (`FUR VIII') conference in Mons, Belgium, together with a few solicited papers from well-known authors in the field.
This book addresses some of the questions that have recently emerged in the research on decision-making and risk theory. In particular, authors have modeled more and more as interactions between the individual and the environment or between different individuals the emergence of beliefs as well as the specific type of information treatment traditionally called `rationality'. This book analyzes several cases of such an interaction and derives consequences for the future of decision theory and risk theory.
In the last ten years, modeling beliefs has become a specific sub-field of decision making, particularly with respect to low probability events. Rational decision making has also been generalized in order to encompass, in new ways and in more general situations than it used to be fitted to, multiple dimensions in consequences. This book deals with some of the most conspicuous of these advances.
It also addresses the difficult question to incorporate several of these recent advances simultaneously into one single decision model. And it offers perspectives about the future trends of modeling such complex decision questions.
The volume is organized in three main blocks:

• The first block is the more `traditional' one. It deals with new extensions of the existing theory, as is always demanded by scientists in the field.
• A second block handles specific elements in the development of interactions between individuals and their environment, as defined in the most general sense.
• The last block confronts real-world problems in both financial and non-financial markets and decisions, and tries to show what kind of contributions can be brought to them by the type of research reported on here.

---

Beliefs, Interactions and Preferences in Decision Making mixes a selection of papers, presented at the Eighth Foundations and Applications of Utility and Risk Theory (`FUR VIII') conference in Mons, Belgium, together with a few solicited papers from well-known authors in the field.
This book addresses some of the questions that have recently emerged in the research on decision-making and risk theory. In particular, authors have modeled more and more as interactions between the individual and the environment or between different individuals the emergence of beliefs as well as the specific type of information treatment traditionally called `rationality'. This book analyzes several cases of such an interaction and derives consequences for the future of decision theory and risk theory.
In the last ten years, modeling beliefs has become a specific sub-field of decision making, particularly with respect to low probability events. Rational decision making has also been generalized in order to encompass, in new ways and in more general situations than it used to be fitted to, multiple dimensions in consequences. This book deals with some of the most conspicuous of these advances.
It also addresses the difficult question to incorporate several of these recent advances simultaneously into one single decision model. And it offers perspectives about the future trends of modeling such complex decision questions.
The volume is organized in three main blocks:

• The first block is the more `traditional' one. It deals with new extensions of the existing theory, as is always demanded by scientists in the field.
• A second block handles specific elements in the development of interactions between individuals and their environment, as defined in the most general sense.
• The last block confronts real-world problems in both financial and non-financial markets and decisions, and tries to show what kind of contributions can be brought to them by the type of research reported on here.

Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-viii
Introduction to the Volume....Pages 1-3
Front Matter....Pages 5-6
Subjectively Expected State-Independent Utility on State-Dependent Consequence Domains....Pages 7-21
Risk and Uncertainty Aversion on Certainty Equivalent Functions....Pages 23-52
The State-Contingent Approach to Risk Premiums and Comparative Statics in Generalised Expected Utility Theory....Pages 53-67
The Preservation of Comparative Statics under Uncertainty....Pages 69-76
Front Matter....Pages 77-78
Non-Additive Beliefs: From Decision to Game Theory....Pages 79-92
A Positive Value of Information for a Non-Bayesian Decision-Maker....Pages 93-107
Preference Summaries for Stochastic Tree Rollback....Pages 109-120
Do We Really Need Numerous Observations to Select Candidates? (The d-Day Theorem)....Pages 121-134
Education Signalling and Uncertainty....Pages 135-157
Self-Awareness, Uncertainty, and Markets with Overconfidence....Pages 159-176
Front Matter....Pages 177-178
Combinatoric and Geometric Aspects of Some Probabilistic Choice Models — A Review....Pages 179-203
Probabilistic Interactions among Players of a Cooperative Game....Pages 205-216
Arbitrage, Incomplete Models, and Other People’s Brains....Pages 217-236
Front Matter....Pages 237-238
Changing Decision Rules....Pages 239-251
The Intertemporal Choice Triangle....Pages 253-264
Testing the Effects of Similarity and Real Payoffs on Choice....Pages 265-283
How Consistent Are Probability Tradeoffs in Individual Preferences under Risk?....Pages 285-295
Front Matter....Pages 297-298
Symmetrical Monotone Risk Aversion and Positive Bid-Ask Spreads....Pages 299-314
Time Resolution of Risk and Asymmetric Information....Pages 315-330
Front Matter....Pages 297-298
The Pricing of Optimal Insurance Policies....Pages 331-339
Multi-Attribute Decision Making and Generalized Expected Utility in Nuclear Power Plant Maintenance....Pages 341-357
Back Matter....Pages 359-377

---

Beliefs, Interactions and Preferences in Decision Making mixes a selection of papers, presented at the Eighth Foundations and Applications of Utility and Risk Theory (`FUR VIII') conference in Mons, Belgium, together with a few solicited papers from well-known authors in the field.
This book addresses some of the questions that have recently emerged in the research on decision-making and risk theory. In particular, authors have modeled more and more as interactions between the individual and the environment or between different individuals the emergence of beliefs as well as the specific type of information treatment traditionally called `rationality'. This book analyzes several cases of such an interaction and derives consequences for the future of decision theory and risk theory.
In the last ten years, modeling beliefs has become a specific sub-field of decision making, particularly with respect to low probability events. Rational decision making has also been generalized in order to encompass, in new ways and in more general situations than it used to be fitted to, multiple dimensions in consequences. This book deals with some of the most conspicuous of these advances.
It also addresses the difficult question to incorporate several of these recent advances simultaneously into one single decision model. And it offers perspectives about the future trends of modeling such complex decision questions.
The volume is organized in three main blocks:

• The first block is the more `traditional' one. It deals with new extensions of the existing theory, as is always demanded by scientists in the field.
• A second block handles specific elements in the development of interactions between individuals and their environment, as defined in the most general sense.
• The last block confronts real-world problems in both financial and non-financial markets and decisions, and tries to show what kind of contributions can be brought to them by the type of research reported on here.

Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-viii
Introduction to the Volume....Pages 1-3
Front Matter....Pages 5-6
Subjectively Expected State-Independent Utility on State-Dependent Consequence Domains....Pages 7-21
Risk and Uncertainty Aversion on Certainty Equivalent Functions....Pages 23-52
The State-Contingent Approach to Risk Premiums and Comparative Statics in Generalised Expected Utility Theory....Pages 53-67
The Preservation of Comparative Statics under Uncertainty....Pages 69-76
Front Matter....Pages 77-78
Non-Additive Beliefs: From Decision to Game Theory....Pages 79-92
A Positive Value of Information for a Non-Bayesian Decision-Maker....Pages 93-107
Preference Summaries for Stochastic Tree Rollback....Pages 109-120
Do We Really Need Numerous Observations to Select Candidates? (The d-Day Theorem)....Pages 121-134
Education Signalling and Uncertainty....Pages 135-157
Self-Awareness, Uncertainty, and Markets with Overconfidence....Pages 159-176
Front Matter....Pages 177-178
Combinatoric and Geometric Aspects of Some Probabilistic Choice Models — A Review....Pages 179-203
Probabilistic Interactions among Players of a Cooperative Game....Pages 205-216
Arbitrage, Incomplete Models, and Other People’s Brains....Pages 217-236
Front Matter....Pages 237-238
Changing Decision Rules....Pages 239-251
The Intertemporal Choice Triangle....Pages 253-264
Testing the Effects of Similarity and Real Payoffs on Choice....Pages 265-283
How Consistent Are Probability Tradeoffs in Individual Preferences under Risk?....Pages 285-295
Front Matter....Pages 297-298
Symmetrical Monotone Risk Aversion and Positive Bid-Ask Spreads....Pages 299-314
Time Resolution of Risk and Asymmetric Information....Pages 315-330
Front Matter....Pages 297-298
The Pricing of Optimal Insurance Policies....Pages 331-339
Multi-Attribute Decision Making and Generalized Expected Utility in Nuclear Power Plant Maintenance....Pages 341-357
Back Matter....Pages 359-377
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