Ebook: Applied Decision Analysis

Taking advantage of the many specialists visiting Spain prior to the INFORMS Meeting in Barcelona, hold from July 14th to July 17th 1997, we organized a work­ shop on Decision Analysis Applications at the Real Academia de Ciencias, Madrid, Spain, from J uly 11th to 12th 1997, under the sponsorship of de the Instituto Espaiia. This workshop had a precedent in the International Conference Decision Making: Towards the 21st Century also held at the Real Academia de Ciencias in 1993. The idea of organizing an event, this time devoted to applications of Decision Analysis, was due to Prof. Sixto Rfos, who some four years ago, .sponsored and encouraged by the Royal Academy of Sciences, was the creator of an Interdisciplinary Working Group on Decision Analysis -formed with researchers from within and outside this Academy- which has been active since then, organizing periodical meetings, and whose last project has tumed out into this Workshop. The workshop turned out to be an stimulating opportunity for communicating and discussing the enormous variety of applications of Decision Sciences. In this volume we have included most of the invited papers and a selection of refereed contributed papers. Due to the varied nature of the applications, we have grouped them into five groups ending, as way of an epilog, with a paper by Sarin which contains important insights and reftections on the nature of Decision Analysis in public and private sectors.

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This volume examines applications of decision analysis in both the public and private sectors.

• The first part contains applications in natural resources and environmental decisionmaking. Within this context, the contributors use such methodologies as Markov decision processes, multiattribute decision analysis, optimal control theory and a new methodology called management by exception principle that incorporates multiattribute utility theory and dynamic models.
• The second part is devoted to medicaldecision making with applications of expected utility optimization, decision support systems, and influence diagrams.
• Economics andfinance constitute an important area of application and part three reviews applications including the use of fuzzy linear programming, intertemporal dynamic asset pricing models, and multicriteria decision making.
• Part four contains educational applications.
• The book also presents miscellaneous applications of decision analysis including the use of multiattribute utility theory to evaluate nuclear disposal options and the use of dynamic graphical models to approach the classical problems of maintenance and replacement.

The wide and varied range of applications in this volume should help those interested in real world applications of decision analysis and decision making to deal with complex problems.

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This volume examines applications of decision analysis in both the public and private sectors.

• The first part contains applications in natural resources and environmental decisionmaking. Within this context, the contributors use such methodologies as Markov decision processes, multiattribute decision analysis, optimal control theory and a new methodology called management by exception principle that incorporates multiattribute utility theory and dynamic models.
• The second part is devoted to medicaldecision making with applications of expected utility optimization, decision support systems, and influence diagrams.
• Economics andfinance constitute an important area of application and part three reviews applications including the use of fuzzy linear programming, intertemporal dynamic asset pricing models, and multicriteria decision making.
• Part four contains educational applications.
• The book also presents miscellaneous applications of decision analysis including the use of multiattribute utility theory to evaluate nuclear disposal options and the use of dynamic graphical models to approach the classical problems of maintenance and replacement.

The wide and varied range of applications in this volume should help those interested in real world applications of decision analysis and decision making to deal with complex problems.
Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-xix
Front Matter....Pages 1-1
Design of a Decision Support System for use in the Event of a Nuclear Emergency....Pages 3-18
Contaminated Aquatic Ecosystems Restoration: A Case Study....Pages 19-31
Is Economic Growth Compatible with the Respect for the Environment?....Pages 33-46
Sow Model for Decision Aid at Farm Level....Pages 47-62
Intelligent Decision Support for Reservoir Operations....Pages 63-72
Analysis of Livestock Production Systems via Compromise Programming....Pages 73-83
Using Mathematical Models in the Management of Forest Industries....Pages 85-97
Front Matter....Pages 99-99
Automatic Diagnostic of Breast Cancer: A Case Study....Pages 101-113
Decision Analysis for a Data Monitoring Committee of a Clinical Trial....Pages 115-121
Optimal Design in Longitudinal Data Models....Pages 123-131
An Intelligent Decision System for Jaundice Management in Newborn Babies....Pages 133-144
Front Matter....Pages 145-145
A Theory of Possibility Approach to The Solution of a Fuzzy Linear Programming....Pages 147-157
Measuring the Arbitrage Opportunities in an Intertemporal Dynamic Asset Pricing Model....Pages 159-172
Work-leisure Trade-off in a Workers’ Enterprise: A Decision Analysis Approach....Pages 173-180
Implementing Financial Equilibrium of Incomplete Markets: Bounded Portfolios and the Limiting Case....Pages 181-191
Front Matter....Pages 193-193
A Decision Analysis Approach to Multiple-Choice Examinations....Pages 195-207
Equilibrium Policies among University Departments....Pages 209-221
Front Matter....Pages 223-223
Evaluation of Alternatives for the Disposition of Surplus Weapons-usable Plutonium....Pages 225-234
A Graphical Model for Equipment Maintenance and Replacement Problems....Pages 235-245
Front Matter....Pages 247-247
Decision Analysis for Private and Public Sector Decisions....Pages 249-257

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This volume examines applications of decision analysis in both the public and private sectors.

• The first part contains applications in natural resources and environmental decisionmaking. Within this context, the contributors use such methodologies as Markov decision processes, multiattribute decision analysis, optimal control theory and a new methodology called management by exception principle that incorporates multiattribute utility theory and dynamic models.
• The second part is devoted to medicaldecision making with applications of expected utility optimization, decision support systems, and influence diagrams.
• Economics andfinance constitute an important area of application and part three reviews applications including the use of fuzzy linear programming, intertemporal dynamic asset pricing models, and multicriteria decision making.
• Part four contains educational applications.
• The book also presents miscellaneous applications of decision analysis including the use of multiattribute utility theory to evaluate nuclear disposal options and the use of dynamic graphical models to approach the classical problems of maintenance and replacement.

The wide and varied range of applications in this volume should help those interested in real world applications of decision analysis and decision making to deal with complex problems.
Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-xix
Front Matter....Pages 1-1
Design of a Decision Support System for use in the Event of a Nuclear Emergency....Pages 3-18
Contaminated Aquatic Ecosystems Restoration: A Case Study....Pages 19-31
Is Economic Growth Compatible with the Respect for the Environment?....Pages 33-46
Sow Model for Decision Aid at Farm Level....Pages 47-62
Intelligent Decision Support for Reservoir Operations....Pages 63-72
Analysis of Livestock Production Systems via Compromise Programming....Pages 73-83
Using Mathematical Models in the Management of Forest Industries....Pages 85-97
Front Matter....Pages 99-99
Automatic Diagnostic of Breast Cancer: A Case Study....Pages 101-113
Decision Analysis for a Data Monitoring Committee of a Clinical Trial....Pages 115-121
Optimal Design in Longitudinal Data Models....Pages 123-131
An Intelligent Decision System for Jaundice Management in Newborn Babies....Pages 133-144
Front Matter....Pages 145-145
A Theory of Possibility Approach to The Solution of a Fuzzy Linear Programming....Pages 147-157
Measuring the Arbitrage Opportunities in an Intertemporal Dynamic Asset Pricing Model....Pages 159-172
Work-leisure Trade-off in a Workers’ Enterprise: A Decision Analysis Approach....Pages 173-180
Implementing Financial Equilibrium of Incomplete Markets: Bounded Portfolios and the Limiting Case....Pages 181-191
Front Matter....Pages 193-193
A Decision Analysis Approach to Multiple-Choice Examinations....Pages 195-207
Equilibrium Policies among University Departments....Pages 209-221
Front Matter....Pages 223-223
Evaluation of Alternatives for the Disposition of Surplus Weapons-usable Plutonium....Pages 225-234
A Graphical Model for Equipment Maintenance and Replacement Problems....Pages 235-245
Front Matter....Pages 247-247
Decision Analysis for Private and Public Sector Decisions....Pages 249-257
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