Ebook: Progress in Decision, Utility and Risk Theory

In this volume we present some of the papers delivered at FUR-IV - the Fourth International Conference on Founda­ tions and Applications of Utility, Risk and Decision Theory in Budapest, June 1988. The FUR Conferences have provided an appreciated forum every two years since 1982 within which scientists can report recent issues and prospective applications of decision theory, and exchange ideas about controversial questions of this field. Focal points of the presented papers are: expected utility versus alterna­ tive utility models, concepts of risk and uncertainty, developments of game theory, and investigations of real decision making behaviour under uncertainty and/or in risky situations. We hope that this sample of papers will appeal to a wide spectrum of readers who are interested in and fami­ liar with this interesting and exciting issues of decision theory. A wide range of theoretical and practical questions is considered in papers included in this volume, and many of them closely related to economics. In fact, there were two Nobel-Laureates in economics among the participants: I. Herbert A. Simon (1978) and Maurice Allais (1988), who won the prize just after the conference. His paper deals with problems of cardinal utility. After a concise overview of the history and theory of cardinal utility he gives an estimate of the invariant cardinal utility function for its whole domain of variation (i. e.

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Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-xi
Front Matter....Pages 1-1
Cardinal Utility....Pages 1-42
Game Solutions And The Normal Form....Pages 43-66
Overconfidence In Overconfidence....Pages 67-75
Problem Formulation And Alternative Generation In The Decision Making Process....Pages 77-83
Front Matter....Pages 85-85
On Non-Expected-Utility Preferences....Pages 85-94
Aspects of Regret Theory and Disappointment Theory As Alternatives to the Expected Utility Hypothesis....Pages 95-103
Expected Utility Theory - The “Confirmation” That Backfires....Pages 105-114
The Expected Utility Model As An Aggregation Procedure....Pages 115-123
Lowered Welfare Under The Expected Utility Procedure....Pages 125-133
Geometric Models Of Decision Making Under Uncertainty....Pages 135-143
Front Matter....Pages 145-145
Response-Modes And Inconsistencies In Preference Assessments....Pages 145-153
Consistent Choice And Sexes....Pages 155-163
Experimental Study Of The (m, Eu) Model....Pages 165-173
Expected Utility Violations....Pages 175-182
Front Matter....Pages 183-183
Fuzzy Sets In Risk Analysis....Pages 183-191
Mean-Risk Decision Analysis Under Partial Information....Pages 193-201
Sequential Equilibria in Beliefs In Semi-Games....Pages 203-211
Some Links Between Decomposable Measures And Capacities Modeling Uncertainty Attitudes....Pages 213-220
Linear Utility Theory And Belief Functions: A Discussion....Pages 221-229
Transportation Models, Subjective Probability, And Fuzzy Membership: Empirical Comparisons....Pages 231-238
Front Matter....Pages 183-183
Increasing Risk: Another Definition....Pages 239-248
‘Irreversible Risk’ As Intertemporal Opportunities....Pages 249-259
Analyses Of Expected Utilities in A Causal Decision Theory*....Pages 261-269
Group Decisions and Decisions for a Group....Pages 271-279
The Foundations Of The Theory Of Choice Between Experiments....Pages 281-291
Morally Rational Decisions....Pages 293-298
Front Matter....Pages 299-299
Flexibility As Strategic Response To Increasing Uncertainty....Pages 299-305
Incorporating The Security Factor And The Potential Factor In Decision Making Under Risk....Pages 307-315
“Risk Society: Towards a New Type of Modernization”....Pages 317-321
Behavioral Consistency In Sequential Decisions....Pages 323-329
A Comparison Of Two Definitions Of Risk Aversion....Pages 331-336
A New Concept For Modelling Risk Taking....Pages 337-345
Problems Of The Application Of Risk Management Models In Project Evaluation....Pages 347-354
Risk Aversion As A Function Of Variance And Skewness....Pages 355-363
Back Matter....Pages 365-367

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Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-xi
Front Matter....Pages 1-1
Cardinal Utility....Pages 1-42
Game Solutions And The Normal Form....Pages 43-66
Overconfidence In Overconfidence....Pages 67-75
Problem Formulation And Alternative Generation In The Decision Making Process....Pages 77-83
Front Matter....Pages 85-85
On Non-Expected-Utility Preferences....Pages 85-94
Aspects of Regret Theory and Disappointment Theory As Alternatives to the Expected Utility Hypothesis....Pages 95-103
Expected Utility Theory - The “Confirmation” That Backfires....Pages 105-114
The Expected Utility Model As An Aggregation Procedure....Pages 115-123
Lowered Welfare Under The Expected Utility Procedure....Pages 125-133
Geometric Models Of Decision Making Under Uncertainty....Pages 135-143
Front Matter....Pages 145-145
Response-Modes And Inconsistencies In Preference Assessments....Pages 145-153
Consistent Choice And Sexes....Pages 155-163
Experimental Study Of The (m, Eu) Model....Pages 165-173
Expected Utility Violations....Pages 175-182
Front Matter....Pages 183-183
Fuzzy Sets In Risk Analysis....Pages 183-191
Mean-Risk Decision Analysis Under Partial Information....Pages 193-201
Sequential Equilibria in Beliefs In Semi-Games....Pages 203-211
Some Links Between Decomposable Measures And Capacities Modeling Uncertainty Attitudes....Pages 213-220
Linear Utility Theory And Belief Functions: A Discussion....Pages 221-229
Transportation Models, Subjective Probability, And Fuzzy Membership: Empirical Comparisons....Pages 231-238
Front Matter....Pages 183-183
Increasing Risk: Another Definition....Pages 239-248
‘Irreversible Risk’ As Intertemporal Opportunities....Pages 249-259
Analyses Of Expected Utilities in A Causal Decision Theory*....Pages 261-269
Group Decisions and Decisions for a Group....Pages 271-279
The Foundations Of The Theory Of Choice Between Experiments....Pages 281-291
Morally Rational Decisions....Pages 293-298
Front Matter....Pages 299-299
Flexibility As Strategic Response To Increasing Uncertainty....Pages 299-305
Incorporating The Security Factor And The Potential Factor In Decision Making Under Risk....Pages 307-315
“Risk Society: Towards a New Type of Modernization”....Pages 317-321
Behavioral Consistency In Sequential Decisions....Pages 323-329
A Comparison Of Two Definitions Of Risk Aversion....Pages 331-336
A New Concept For Modelling Risk Taking....Pages 337-345
Problems Of The Application Of Risk Management Models In Project Evaluation....Pages 347-354
Risk Aversion As A Function Of Variance And Skewness....Pages 355-363
Back Matter....Pages 365-367
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