Ebook: Acting under Uncertainty: Multidisciplinary Conceptions

Uncertainty could be associated with wisdom, enterprise, and discovery. In ordinary speech, however, it has mostly negative connotations. There is "fear of the unknown" and "ignorance is bliss;" there are maxims to the effect that "what you don't know doesn't hurt you" (or: "bother you") in several languages. This volume suggests that we need be bothered by the excessive confidence with which scientists, particularly social scientists, present some of their conclusions and overstate their range of application. Otherwise many of the questions that should be raised about all the major uncertainties attending a particular issue routinely may continue to be thwarted or suppressed. Down playing uncertainty does not lead to more responsible or surer action, it sidetracks research agendas, and leaves the decision makers exposed to nasty surprise. This volume demonstrates that recognizing the many forms of uncertainty that enter into the development of any particular subject matter is a precondition for more responsible choice and deeper knowledge. Our purpose is to contribute to a broader appreciation of uncertainty than regularly accorded in any of the numerous disciplines represented here. The seventeenth-century French philosopher Descartes, quoted in this volume, wrote that "whoever is searching after truth must, once in his life, doubt all things; insofar as this is possible. " White areas left on maps of the world in past centuries were a much more productive challenge than marking the end of the known world with the pillars of Hercules.

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Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-xvii
Front Matter....Pages 1-1
Coping with Uncertainty in Natural Science: 1200–1700....Pages 3-18
Political, Moral, and Economic Decisions and the Origins of the Mathematical Theory of Probability: The Case of Jacob Bernoulli’s The Art of Conjecturing ....Pages 19-44
The Quantification of Uncertainty after 1700: Statistics Socially Constructed?....Pages 45-75
Uncertainty and the Conditioning of Beliefs....Pages 77-94
The Unity of Probability....Pages 95-126
Necessity, Chance, and Freedom....Pages 127-158
Front Matter....Pages 159-159
Risk in Cultural Perspective....Pages 161-179
Statistical Hypothesis Tests and Statistical Power in Pure and Applied Science....Pages 181-201
Uncertainty in Environmental Risk Assessment....Pages 203-230
Uncertainty in Morals and Politics....Pages 231-264
Front Matter....Pages 265-265
Re-Modeling Risk Aversion: A Comparison of Bernoullian and Rank Dependent Value Approaches....Pages 267-299
Neither Gullible Nor Unteachable Be: Signal Extraction and the Optimal Speed of Learning from Uncertain News....Pages 301-324
Rethinking Rational Expectations....Pages 325-354
Multiattribute Decision Models: Task Order and Group Effects....Pages 355-374
Front Matter....Pages 375-375
Measuring Vague Uncertainties and Understanding Their Use in Decision Making....Pages 377-398
Quantifying Vagueness and Possibility: New Trends in Knowledge Representation....Pages 399-422
Chaos and Complexity in Economic and Financial Science....Pages 423-450
Information....Pages 451-469
Back Matter....Pages 471-485

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Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-xvii
Front Matter....Pages 1-1
Coping with Uncertainty in Natural Science: 1200–1700....Pages 3-18
Political, Moral, and Economic Decisions and the Origins of the Mathematical Theory of Probability: The Case of Jacob Bernoulli’s The Art of Conjecturing ....Pages 19-44
The Quantification of Uncertainty after 1700: Statistics Socially Constructed?....Pages 45-75
Uncertainty and the Conditioning of Beliefs....Pages 77-94
The Unity of Probability....Pages 95-126
Necessity, Chance, and Freedom....Pages 127-158
Front Matter....Pages 159-159
Risk in Cultural Perspective....Pages 161-179
Statistical Hypothesis Tests and Statistical Power in Pure and Applied Science....Pages 181-201
Uncertainty in Environmental Risk Assessment....Pages 203-230
Uncertainty in Morals and Politics....Pages 231-264
Front Matter....Pages 265-265
Re-Modeling Risk Aversion: A Comparison of Bernoullian and Rank Dependent Value Approaches....Pages 267-299
Neither Gullible Nor Unteachable Be: Signal Extraction and the Optimal Speed of Learning from Uncertain News....Pages 301-324
Rethinking Rational Expectations....Pages 325-354
Multiattribute Decision Models: Task Order and Group Effects....Pages 355-374
Front Matter....Pages 375-375
Measuring Vague Uncertainties and Understanding Their Use in Decision Making....Pages 377-398
Quantifying Vagueness and Possibility: New Trends in Knowledge Representation....Pages 399-422
Chaos and Complexity in Economic and Financial Science....Pages 423-450
Information....Pages 451-469
Back Matter....Pages 471-485
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