Ebook: Improving Risk Analysis

Improving Risk Analysis shows how to better assess and manage uncertain risks when the consequences of alternative actions are in doubt. The constructive methods of causal analysis and risk modeling presented in this monograph will enable to better understand uncertain risks and decide how to manage them.

The book is divided into three parts. Parts 1 shows how high-quality risk analysis can improve the clarity and effectiveness of individual, community, and enterprise decisions when the consequences of different choices are uncertain. Part 2 discusses social decisions. Part 3 illustrates these methods and models, showing how to apply them to health effects of particulate air pollution.

"Tony Cox’s new book addresses what risk analysts and policy makers most need to know: How to find out what causes what, and how to quantify the practical differences that changes in risk management practices would make. The constructive methods in Improving Risk Analysis will be invaluable in helping practitioners to deliver more useful insights to inform high-stakes decisions and policy,in areas ranging from disaster planning to counter-terrorism investments to enterprise risk management to air pollution abatement policies. Better risk management is possible and practicable; Improving Risk Analysis explains how."
Elisabeth Pate-Cornell, Stanford University

"Improving Risk Analysis offers crucial advice for moving policy-relevant risk analyses towards more defensible, causally-based methods. Tony Cox draws on his extensive experience to offer sound advice and insights that will be invaluable to both policy makers and analysts in strengthening the foundations for important risk analyses. This much-needed book should be required reading for policy makers and policy analysts confronting uncertain risks and seeking more trustworthy risk analyses."
Seth Guikema, Johns Hopkins University

"Tony Cox has been a trail blazer in quantitative risk analysis, and his new book gives readers the knowledge and tools needed to cut through the complexity and advocacy inherent in risk analysis. Cox’s careful exposition is detailed and thorough, yet accessible to non-technical readers interested in understanding uncertain risks and the outcomes associated with different mitigation actions. Improving Risk Analysis should be required reading for public officials responsible for making policy decisions about how best to protect public health and safety in an uncertain world."
Susan E. Dudley, George Washington University

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?Improving Risk Analysis discusses and illustrates practical methods for assessing, communicating, and managing uncertain risks when the probabilities of consequences caused by alternative actions cannot be quantified with useful confidence, accuracy, and precision. This monograph demonstrates how to avoid these pitfalls by using improved techniques of risk analysis. Through these improved techniques of risk analysis, readers will better understand uncertain risks and be able to make more effective decisions about how to manage them.

The book is divided into three parts. Parts 1 and 2 explore the key principles on how high-quality risk analysis can greatly improve the clarity and effectiveness of decisions when the consequences of different choices are uncertain. Part 3 shows in greater detail how these introduced methods can be applied to health effects of air pollution, with emphasis on understanding and modeling causal relations between exposures and responses based on realistically limited and imperfect data. Throughout the book, real-world examples and case studies drawn from health, safety, environmental, and terrorism risk analysis are used and illustrate the practical application of techniques for improving risk analysis.

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?Improving Risk Analysis discusses and illustrates practical methods for assessing, communicating, and managing uncertain risks when the probabilities of consequences caused by alternative actions cannot be quantified with useful confidence, accuracy, and precision. This monograph demonstrates how to avoid these pitfalls by using improved techniques of risk analysis. Through these improved techniques of risk analysis, readers will better understand uncertain risks and be able to make more effective decisions about how to manage them.

The book is divided into three parts. Parts 1 and 2 explore the key principles on how high-quality risk analysis can greatly improve the clarity and effectiveness of decisions when the consequences of different choices are uncertain. Part 3 shows in greater detail how these introduced methods can be applied to health effects of air pollution, with emphasis on understanding and modeling causal relations between exposures and responses based on realistically limited and imperfect data. Throughout the book, real-world examples and case studies drawn from health, safety, environmental, and terrorism risk analysis are used and illustrate the practical application of techniques for improving risk analysis.

Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-xxv
Front Matter....Pages 1-1
Causality for Risk Analysts: Improving Our Understanding of How the World Works....Pages 3-58
Improving Individual Risk Management Decisions: Learning from Experience and Coping with Model Uncertainty....Pages 59-95
Improving Community Risk Management....Pages 97-124
Improving Organizational Risk Management....Pages 125-154
Front Matter....Pages 155-155
Improving Defense Against Intelligent Adversaries....Pages 157-180
Managing Real and Perceived Risks: Animal Antibiotics and Drug-Resistant Infections....Pages 181-222
Rethinking the Health Benefits of Air Pollution Control....Pages 223-244
Air Pollution and Health Risk Inequality....Pages 245-251
Front Matter....Pages 253-253
A Causal Model of COPD....Pages 255-293
Exposure–Response Thresholds for Lung Diseases....Pages 295-310
An Exposure–Response Threshold for Lung Diseases Caused by Crystalline Silica....Pages 311-335
Low-Dose Nonlinear Effects of Smoking on Coronary Heart Disease Risk....Pages 337-351
Do Cold Weather and Fine Particulate Matter Air Pollution Cause Early Deaths in the Elderly?....Pages 353-372
Conclusions and Recommendations: What Have We Learned?....Pages 373-375
Back Matter....Pages 377-386

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?Improving Risk Analysis discusses and illustrates practical methods for assessing, communicating, and managing uncertain risks when the probabilities of consequences caused by alternative actions cannot be quantified with useful confidence, accuracy, and precision. This monograph demonstrates how to avoid these pitfalls by using improved techniques of risk analysis. Through these improved techniques of risk analysis, readers will better understand uncertain risks and be able to make more effective decisions about how to manage them.

The book is divided into three parts. Parts 1 and 2 explore the key principles on how high-quality risk analysis can greatly improve the clarity and effectiveness of decisions when the consequences of different choices are uncertain. Part 3 shows in greater detail how these introduced methods can be applied to health effects of air pollution, with emphasis on understanding and modeling causal relations between exposures and responses based on realistically limited and imperfect data. Throughout the book, real-world examples and case studies drawn from health, safety, environmental, and terrorism risk analysis are used and illustrate the practical application of techniques for improving risk analysis.

Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-xxv
Front Matter....Pages 1-1
Causality for Risk Analysts: Improving Our Understanding of How the World Works....Pages 3-58
Improving Individual Risk Management Decisions: Learning from Experience and Coping with Model Uncertainty....Pages 59-95
Improving Community Risk Management....Pages 97-124
Improving Organizational Risk Management....Pages 125-154
Front Matter....Pages 155-155
Improving Defense Against Intelligent Adversaries....Pages 157-180
Managing Real and Perceived Risks: Animal Antibiotics and Drug-Resistant Infections....Pages 181-222
Rethinking the Health Benefits of Air Pollution Control....Pages 223-244
Air Pollution and Health Risk Inequality....Pages 245-251
Front Matter....Pages 253-253
A Causal Model of COPD....Pages 255-293
Exposure–Response Thresholds for Lung Diseases....Pages 295-310
An Exposure–Response Threshold for Lung Diseases Caused by Crystalline Silica....Pages 311-335
Low-Dose Nonlinear Effects of Smoking on Coronary Heart Disease Risk....Pages 337-351
Do Cold Weather and Fine Particulate Matter Air Pollution Cause Early Deaths in the Elderly?....Pages 353-372
Conclusions and Recommendations: What Have We Learned?....Pages 373-375
Back Matter....Pages 377-386
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