Ebook: Philosophical Essay on Probabilities

Pierre-Simon Laplace (1749-1827) is remembered amoung probabilitists today particularly for his "Theorie analytique des probabilites", published in 1812. The "Essai philosophique dur les probabilites" is his introduction for the second edition of this work. Here Laplace provided a popular exposition on his "Theorie". The "Essai", based on a lecture on probability given by Laplace in 1794, underwent sweeping changes, almost doubling in size, in the various editions published during Laplace's lifetime. Translations of various editions in different languages have apeared over the years. The only English translation of 1902 reads awkwardly today. This is a thorough and modern translation based on the recent re-issue, with its voluminous notes, of the fifth edition of 1826, with preface by Rene Thom and postscript by Bernard Bru. In the second part of the book, the reader is provided with an extensive commentary by the translator including valuable histographical and mathematical remarks and various proofs.

---

---

Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-xviii
Front Matter....Pages 1-1
On probability....Pages 2-6
General principles of the probability calculus....Pages 6-11
On expectation....Pages 11-14
On analytical methods in the probability calculus....Pages 14-33
On games of chance....Pages 33-34
On unknown inequalities that may exist between supposedly equal chances....Pages 34-36
On laws of probability resulting from the indefinite repetition of events....Pages 36-43
Application of the probability calculus to natural philosophy....Pages 43-61
Application of the probability calculus to the moral sciences....Pages 61-62
On the means of the results of a large number of observations....Pages 62-65
On the probability of testimony....Pages 65-74
On elections and decisions of assemblies....Pages 74-77
On the probability of judicial decisions....Pages 77-81
On tables of mortality and the mean duration of life, marriages and associations in general....Pages 81-85
On the benefits of institutions that depend on the probability of events....Pages 86-91
On illusions in the estimation of probabilities....Pages 91-112
On various approaches to certainty....Pages 112-117
Historical note on the probability calculus....Pages 117-124
Back Matter....Pages 125-270

---

Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-xviii
Front Matter....Pages 1-1
On probability....Pages 2-6
General principles of the probability calculus....Pages 6-11
On expectation....Pages 11-14
On analytical methods in the probability calculus....Pages 14-33
On games of chance....Pages 33-34
On unknown inequalities that may exist between supposedly equal chances....Pages 34-36
On laws of probability resulting from the indefinite repetition of events....Pages 36-43
Application of the probability calculus to natural philosophy....Pages 43-61
Application of the probability calculus to the moral sciences....Pages 61-62
On the means of the results of a large number of observations....Pages 62-65
On the probability of testimony....Pages 65-74
On elections and decisions of assemblies....Pages 74-77
On the probability of judicial decisions....Pages 77-81
On tables of mortality and the mean duration of life, marriages and associations in general....Pages 81-85
On the benefits of institutions that depend on the probability of events....Pages 86-91
On illusions in the estimation of probabilities....Pages 91-112
On various approaches to certainty....Pages 112-117
Historical note on the probability calculus....Pages 117-124
Back Matter....Pages 125-270
....