Ebook: Strategic Stability in the Post-Cold War World and the Future of Nuclear Disarmament

This Report contains a Consensus Report and the papers submitted to the April 6 -10, 1995 NATO Advanced Research Workshop on Strategic Stability In The Post-Cold War World And The Future Of Nuclear Disarmament, held in Washington D. C. , United States Of America of at The Airlie Conference Center. The workshop was sponsored by the NATO Division Scientific and Environmental Affairs as part of its ongoing outreach programme to widen and deepen scientific contacts between NATO member countries and the Cooperation Partner countries of the former Warsaw Treaty Organization. The participants recognize that the collapse of the former Soviet Union has left a conceptual vacuum in the definition of a new world order. Never before have the components of world order all changed so rapidly, so deeply, or so globally. As Henry Kissinger points out, the emergence of the new world order will have answered three fundamental questions:" What are the basic units of the international order? What are their means of interacting? and What are the goals on behalf of which they interact? " The main question is whether the establishment and maintenance of an international system will turn out to be a conscious design, or the outgrowth of a test of strength. The concept of a planning framework that could shape or govern these interactions is emerging and may now be at hand. Capturing this emerging framework is the thrust of this NATO-sponsored Advanced Research Workshop.

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The contributors to Strategic Stability in the Post-Cold War World andthe Future of Nuclear Disarmament recognize that the collapse of the former Soviet Union has left a conceptual vacuum in the definition of a new world order. Never before have the components of world order all changed so rapidly, so deeply, or so globally. As Henry Kissinger points out, the emergence of a new world order will have to confront three fundamental questions: What are the basic units of the international order? What are their means of interacting? and What are the goals on behalf of which they interact?
The main question is whether the establishment and maintenance of an international system will turn out to be a conscious design, or the outgrowth of a trial of strength. The concept of a planning framework that could shape or govern these interactions is emerging and may now be at hand. Capturing this emerging framework is the thrust of the present book, which seeks to reach a consensus on defining a model (calculus) for strategic stability in a changing, multipolar world in the presence of weapons of mass destruction - the model being the core of a conscious design to shape or govern the interactions of nation states in a new world order.
The following taxonomy of the dimensions of strategic stability was accepted by the contributors as the first step towards such a model:

• Stability in geopolitics and balance of power;
• Arms race stability;
• Deterrence stability, crisis stability, first strike stability;
• Stability in the presence of clandestine proliferation.

After four gruelling days, this unprecedented gathering of top academic, scientific and military experts from the USA, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, and Israel reached a general agreement that is captured in the Consensus Report; each participant presented an individual contribution that further fleshes out the dimensions of strategic stability.
This unprecedented work provides joint concepts for all leaders of the nuclear powers to shape their decisions for the coming decades. And for the first time they can base their decisions on agreed scientific facts, not just political judgments.

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The contributors to Strategic Stability in the Post-Cold War World andthe Future of Nuclear Disarmament recognize that the collapse of the former Soviet Union has left a conceptual vacuum in the definition of a new world order. Never before have the components of world order all changed so rapidly, so deeply, or so globally. As Henry Kissinger points out, the emergence of a new world order will have to confront three fundamental questions: What are the basic units of the international order? What are their means of interacting? and What are the goals on behalf of which they interact?
The main question is whether the establishment and maintenance of an international system will turn out to be a conscious design, or the outgrowth of a trial of strength. The concept of a planning framework that could shape or govern these interactions is emerging and may now be at hand. Capturing this emerging framework is the thrust of the present book, which seeks to reach a consensus on defining a model (calculus) for strategic stability in a changing, multipolar world in the presence of weapons of mass destruction - the model being the core of a conscious design to shape or govern the interactions of nation states in a new world order.
The following taxonomy of the dimensions of strategic stability was accepted by the contributors as the first step towards such a model:

• Stability in geopolitics and balance of power;
• Arms race stability;
• Deterrence stability, crisis stability, first strike stability;
• Stability in the presence of clandestine proliferation.

After four gruelling days, this unprecedented gathering of top academic, scientific and military experts from the USA, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, and Israel reached a general agreement that is captured in the Consensus Report; each participant presented an individual contribution that further fleshes out the dimensions of strategic stability.
This unprecedented work provides joint concepts for all leaders of the nuclear powers to shape their decisions for the coming decades. And for the first time they can base their decisions on agreed scientific facts, not just political judgments.
Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-ix
The Consensus Report....Pages 1-35
Front Matter....Pages 37-37
Deterrence, Disarmament, and Post-Cold War Stability: Enhancing Security for both “Haves” and “Have Nots”....Pages 38-50
On Deterrence, Balance of Power, and Geopolitics....Pages 53-67
Proliferation Stability and Instability: Conditioning Factors....Pages 69-75
Verifying the Future — Towards an International Conventional Arms Control and Conversion Regime for the 21st Century....Pages 77-83
Crisis Stability in a Multi-Polar World....Pages 85-93
Russia and the West: A Partnership?....Pages 97-106
Possibilities for Cooperation of Russia and the USA in Designing, Correction and Realization of National Security Doctrines....Pages 107-113
Deterrence and Stability....Pages 115-129
Geo-Political Stability and the Balance of Power in East Asia....Pages 133-139
Strategic Stability in the Early 2000S: An Indian View of a South Asian Model....Pages 141-167
Non-Nuclear Proliferation and Strategic Stability in the Asia-Pacific Region....Pages 169-176
Balance of Power Versus Collective Security: A Game-Theoretic Analysis....Pages 179-190
Russia’s Nuclear Strategy: 90-S and After....Pages 191-200
Multipolar Nuclear Stability: Incentives to Strike and Incentives to Preempt....Pages 203-220
Controlling Instabilities Caused by Rogue Governments....Pages 221-227
From MAD to MAD....Pages 229-258
Fssi as an Universal Measure of Stability: From MAD-Stability Toward MAP-Stability....Pages 259-267
Analyzing Three-Way Arms Races....Pages 271-295
New Patterns in the Arms Race: Some Guidelines....Pages 297-305
Front Matter....Pages 37-37
Approaches to Mathematical Modeling of the Process of World-Wide Strategic Nuclear Conflict Used in the Former USSR....Pages 307-313
Stability, Reassurance and Non-Proliferation....Pages 317-330

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The contributors to Strategic Stability in the Post-Cold War World andthe Future of Nuclear Disarmament recognize that the collapse of the former Soviet Union has left a conceptual vacuum in the definition of a new world order. Never before have the components of world order all changed so rapidly, so deeply, or so globally. As Henry Kissinger points out, the emergence of a new world order will have to confront three fundamental questions: What are the basic units of the international order? What are their means of interacting? and What are the goals on behalf of which they interact?
The main question is whether the establishment and maintenance of an international system will turn out to be a conscious design, or the outgrowth of a trial of strength. The concept of a planning framework that could shape or govern these interactions is emerging and may now be at hand. Capturing this emerging framework is the thrust of the present book, which seeks to reach a consensus on defining a model (calculus) for strategic stability in a changing, multipolar world in the presence of weapons of mass destruction - the model being the core of a conscious design to shape or govern the interactions of nation states in a new world order.
The following taxonomy of the dimensions of strategic stability was accepted by the contributors as the first step towards such a model:

• Stability in geopolitics and balance of power;
• Arms race stability;
• Deterrence stability, crisis stability, first strike stability;
• Stability in the presence of clandestine proliferation.

After four gruelling days, this unprecedented gathering of top academic, scientific and military experts from the USA, Russia, the UK, France, China, India, and Israel reached a general agreement that is captured in the Consensus Report; each participant presented an individual contribution that further fleshes out the dimensions of strategic stability.
This unprecedented work provides joint concepts for all leaders of the nuclear powers to shape their decisions for the coming decades. And for the first time they can base their decisions on agreed scientific facts, not just political judgments.
Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-ix
The Consensus Report....Pages 1-35
Front Matter....Pages 37-37
Deterrence, Disarmament, and Post-Cold War Stability: Enhancing Security for both “Haves” and “Have Nots”....Pages 38-50
On Deterrence, Balance of Power, and Geopolitics....Pages 53-67
Proliferation Stability and Instability: Conditioning Factors....Pages 69-75
Verifying the Future — Towards an International Conventional Arms Control and Conversion Regime for the 21st Century....Pages 77-83
Crisis Stability in a Multi-Polar World....Pages 85-93
Russia and the West: A Partnership?....Pages 97-106
Possibilities for Cooperation of Russia and the USA in Designing, Correction and Realization of National Security Doctrines....Pages 107-113
Deterrence and Stability....Pages 115-129
Geo-Political Stability and the Balance of Power in East Asia....Pages 133-139
Strategic Stability in the Early 2000S: An Indian View of a South Asian Model....Pages 141-167
Non-Nuclear Proliferation and Strategic Stability in the Asia-Pacific Region....Pages 169-176
Balance of Power Versus Collective Security: A Game-Theoretic Analysis....Pages 179-190
Russia’s Nuclear Strategy: 90-S and After....Pages 191-200
Multipolar Nuclear Stability: Incentives to Strike and Incentives to Preempt....Pages 203-220
Controlling Instabilities Caused by Rogue Governments....Pages 221-227
From MAD to MAD....Pages 229-258
Fssi as an Universal Measure of Stability: From MAD-Stability Toward MAP-Stability....Pages 259-267
Analyzing Three-Way Arms Races....Pages 271-295
New Patterns in the Arms Race: Some Guidelines....Pages 297-305
Front Matter....Pages 37-37
Approaches to Mathematical Modeling of the Process of World-Wide Strategic Nuclear Conflict Used in the Former USSR....Pages 307-313
Stability, Reassurance and Non-Proliferation....Pages 317-330
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