Ebook: The Craft of Probabilistic Modelling: A Collection of Personal Accounts
- Tags: Probability Theory and Stochastic Processes
- Series: Applied Probability 1
- Year: 1986
- Publisher: Springer-Verlag New York
- Edition: 1
- Language: English
- pdf
This book brings together the personal accounts and reflections of nineteen mathematical model-builders, whose specialty is probabilistic modelling. The reader may well wonder why, apart from personal interest, one should commission and edit such a collection of articles. There are, of course, many reasons, but perhaps the three most relevant are: (i) a philosophicaJ interest in conceptual models; this is an interest shared by everyone who has ever puzzled over the relationship between thought and reality; (ii) a conviction, not unsupported by empirical evidence, that probabilistic modelling has an important contribution to make to scientific research; and finally (iii) a curiosity, historical in its nature, about the complex interplay between personal events and the development of a field of mathematical research, namely applied probability. Let me discuss each of these in turn. Philosophical Abstraction, the formation of concepts, and the construction of conceptual models present us with complex philosophical problems which date back to Democritus, Plato and Aristotle. We have all, at one time or another, wondered just how we think; are our thoughts, concepts and models of reality approxim&tions to the truth, or are they simply functional constructs helping us to master our environment? Nowhere are these problems more apparent than in mathematical model ling, where idealized concepts and constructions replace the imperfect realities for which they stand.
Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-xiv
Front Matter....Pages 1-1
Crafty Modelling....Pages 3-9
Looking at Life Quantitatively....Pages 10-30
Remembrance of Things Past....Pages 31-42
A Boy from the Bush....Pages 43-60
Front Matter....Pages 61-61
An Improbable Path....Pages 63-87
Some Samples of Modelling....Pages 88-108
Markovian Models—An Essay....Pages 109-125
Probability Modelling Across the Continents....Pages 126-138
Chance or Determinism?....Pages 139-149
Diffusion Models of Population Genetics in the Age of Molecular Biology....Pages 150-165
Return of the Wanderer: A Physicist Becomes a Probabilist....Pages 166-185
In the Late Afternoon....Pages 186-195
The Making of a Queueing Theorist....Pages 196-210
Front Matter....Pages 211-211
An Algorithmic Probabilist’s Apology....Pages 213-221
Probability, Earthquakes and Travel Abroad....Pages 222-234
From Information Theory to Quantum Mechanics....Pages 235-249
From Real Analysis to Probability: Autobiographical Notes....Pages 250-275
The Path to the Genetics Sampling Formula....Pages 276-290
In and Out of Applied Probability in Australia....Pages 291-308
Back Matter....Pages 309-313
Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-xiv
Front Matter....Pages 1-1
Crafty Modelling....Pages 3-9
Looking at Life Quantitatively....Pages 10-30
Remembrance of Things Past....Pages 31-42
A Boy from the Bush....Pages 43-60
Front Matter....Pages 61-61
An Improbable Path....Pages 63-87
Some Samples of Modelling....Pages 88-108
Markovian Models—An Essay....Pages 109-125
Probability Modelling Across the Continents....Pages 126-138
Chance or Determinism?....Pages 139-149
Diffusion Models of Population Genetics in the Age of Molecular Biology....Pages 150-165
Return of the Wanderer: A Physicist Becomes a Probabilist....Pages 166-185
In the Late Afternoon....Pages 186-195
The Making of a Queueing Theorist....Pages 196-210
Front Matter....Pages 211-211
An Algorithmic Probabilist’s Apology....Pages 213-221
Probability, Earthquakes and Travel Abroad....Pages 222-234
From Information Theory to Quantum Mechanics....Pages 235-249
From Real Analysis to Probability: Autobiographical Notes....Pages 250-275
The Path to the Genetics Sampling Formula....Pages 276-290
In and Out of Applied Probability in Australia....Pages 291-308
Back Matter....Pages 309-313
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