Ebook: Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters

This volume is dedicated to the memory of Barclay G. Jones, Professor of City and Regional Planning and Regional Science at Cornell University. Over a decade ago, Barclay took on a fledgling area of study - economic modeling of disasters - and nurtured its early development. He served as the social science program director at the National Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (NCEER), a university consortium sponsored by the National Science Foundation and the Federal Emergency Management Agency of the United States. In this capacity, Barclay shepherded and attracted a number of regional scientists to the study of disasters. He organized a conference, held in the ill-fated World Trade Center in September 1995, on "The Economic Consequences of Earthquakes: Preparing for the Unexpected. " He persistently advocated the importance of social science research in an establishment dominated by less-than-sympathetic natural scientists and engineers. In 1993, Barclay organized the first of a series of sessions on "Measuring Regional Economic Effects of Unscheduled Events" at the North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International (RSAI). This unusual nomenclature brought attention to the challenge that disasters -largely unanticipated, often sudden, and always disorderly - pose to the regional science modeling tradition. The sessions provided an annual forum for a growing coalition of researchers, where previously the literature had been fragmentary, scattered, and episodic. Since Barclay's unexpected passing in 1997, we have continued this effort in his tradition.

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This book brings together a collection of innovative papers on strategies for analyzing the spatial and economic impacts of disasters. Natural and human-induced disasters pose several challenges for conventional modeling. For example, disasters entail complex linkages between the natural, built, and socio-economic environments. They often create chaos and economic disequilibrium, and can also cause unexpected long-term, structural changes. Dynamic interactions among agents and behavioral adjustments in a disaster become complicated. The papers in this volume make notable progress in tackling these challenges through refinements of conventional methods, as well as new modeling frameworks and multidisciplinary, integrative strategies. The papers also provide case study applications that afford new insights on disaster processes and loss reduction strategies.

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This book brings together a collection of innovative papers on strategies for analyzing the spatial and economic impacts of disasters. Natural and human-induced disasters pose several challenges for conventional modeling. For example, disasters entail complex linkages between the natural, built, and socio-economic environments. They often create chaos and economic disequilibrium, and can also cause unexpected long-term, structural changes. Dynamic interactions among agents and behavioral adjustments in a disaster become complicated. The papers in this volume make notable progress in tackling these challenges through refinements of conventional methods, as well as new modeling frameworks and multidisciplinary, integrative strategies. The papers also provide case study applications that afford new insights on disaster processes and loss reduction strategies.

Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-x
Introduction....Pages 1-10
Front Matter....Pages 11-11
Economic Principles, Issues, and Research Priorities in Hazard Loss Estimation....Pages 13-36
Indirect Losses from Natural Disasters: Measurement and Myth....Pages 37-52
Has September 11 Affected New York City’s Growth Potential?....Pages 53-73
Front Matter....Pages 75-75
Measuring Economic Impacts of Disasters: Interregional Input-Output Analysis Using Sequential Interindustry Model....Pages 77-101
Geohazards in Social Systems: An Insurance Matrix Approach....Pages 103-118
Computable General Equilibrium Modeling of Electric Utility Lifeline Losses from Earthquakes....Pages 119-141
The Fall of the Iron Curtain and the Evolution of German Regional Labour Markets: A Self-Organized Criticality Perspective....Pages 143-161
Risk Perception, Location Choice and Land-use Patterns under Disaster Risk: Long-term Consequences of Information Provision in a Spatial Economy....Pages 163-177
Front Matter....Pages 179-179
The Dynamics of Recovery: A Framework....Pages 181-204
Earthquake Disaster Mitigation for Urban Transportation Systems: An Integrated Methodology that Builds on the Kobe and Northridge Experiences....Pages 205-232
Analysis of Economic Impacts of an Earthquake on Transportation Network....Pages 233-256
Benefit Cost Analysis for Renewal Planning of Existing Electric Power Equipment....Pages 257-287
Evaluating the Disaster Resilience of Power Networks and Grids....Pages 289-310
Back Matter....Pages 311-324

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This book brings together a collection of innovative papers on strategies for analyzing the spatial and economic impacts of disasters. Natural and human-induced disasters pose several challenges for conventional modeling. For example, disasters entail complex linkages between the natural, built, and socio-economic environments. They often create chaos and economic disequilibrium, and can also cause unexpected long-term, structural changes. Dynamic interactions among agents and behavioral adjustments in a disaster become complicated. The papers in this volume make notable progress in tackling these challenges through refinements of conventional methods, as well as new modeling frameworks and multidisciplinary, integrative strategies. The papers also provide case study applications that afford new insights on disaster processes and loss reduction strategies.

Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-x
Introduction....Pages 1-10
Front Matter....Pages 11-11
Economic Principles, Issues, and Research Priorities in Hazard Loss Estimation....Pages 13-36
Indirect Losses from Natural Disasters: Measurement and Myth....Pages 37-52
Has September 11 Affected New York City’s Growth Potential?....Pages 53-73
Front Matter....Pages 75-75
Measuring Economic Impacts of Disasters: Interregional Input-Output Analysis Using Sequential Interindustry Model....Pages 77-101
Geohazards in Social Systems: An Insurance Matrix Approach....Pages 103-118
Computable General Equilibrium Modeling of Electric Utility Lifeline Losses from Earthquakes....Pages 119-141
The Fall of the Iron Curtain and the Evolution of German Regional Labour Markets: A Self-Organized Criticality Perspective....Pages 143-161
Risk Perception, Location Choice and Land-use Patterns under Disaster Risk: Long-term Consequences of Information Provision in a Spatial Economy....Pages 163-177
Front Matter....Pages 179-179
The Dynamics of Recovery: A Framework....Pages 181-204
Earthquake Disaster Mitigation for Urban Transportation Systems: An Integrated Methodology that Builds on the Kobe and Northridge Experiences....Pages 205-232
Analysis of Economic Impacts of an Earthquake on Transportation Network....Pages 233-256
Benefit Cost Analysis for Renewal Planning of Existing Electric Power Equipment....Pages 257-287
Evaluating the Disaster Resilience of Power Networks and Grids....Pages 289-310
Back Matter....Pages 311-324
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