Ebook: Expert Judgment and Expert Systems

This volume is an outgrowth of a NATO Advanced Research Workshop on "Expert Judgment and Expert Systems," held in Porto, Portugal, August 1986. Support for the Workshop was provided by the NATO Division of Scientific Affairs, the U.S. Army Research Institute, and the U.S. National Science Foundation. The Workshop brought together researchers from the fields of psychology, decision analysis, and artificial intelligence. The purposes were to assess similarities, differences, and complementarities among the three approaches to the study of expert judgment; to evaluate their relative strengths and weaknesses; and to propose profitable linkages between them. Each of the papers in the present volume is directed toward one or more of those goals. We wish to express our appreciation and thanks to the following persons for their support and assistance: John Adams, Vincent T. Covello, Luis da Cunha, Claire Jeseo, B. Michael Kantrowitz, Margaret Lally, Judith Orasanu, R. M. Rodrigues, and Sandor P. Schuman.

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Content:
Front Matter....Pages I-VIII
Toward a Unified Approach to the Study of Expert Judgment....Pages 1-16
Some Abstract Problems in Knowledge Representation....Pages 17-25
Principles of the Analytic Hierarchy Process....Pages 27-73
Policy Analysis and Decision Aids....Pages 75-84
Knowledge Systems, Expert Systems, and Risk Communication....Pages 85-103
Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence: Is Probability Epistemologically and Heuristically Adequate?....Pages 105-129
The Use of Causal Knowledge for Inferential Reasoning....Pages 131-146
Interactive Decision Support Systems for Enhancing Expert Judgment....Pages 147-153
Value-Driven Expert Systems for Decision Support....Pages 155-171
Expert Systems and Creativity....Pages 173-193
Expert Systems and Expert Judgment: A User’s Perspective....Pages 195-215
Very Simple Expert Systems: An Application of Judgment Analysis to Political Risk Analysis....Pages 217-240
Expert Systems and Intelligent Computer-Assisted-Instruction....Pages 241-249
Assessing the Effectiveness of Expert Teams....Pages 251-267
Expert Systems as Cognitive Tools for Human Decision Making....Pages 269-288
Psychological Characteristics of Expert Decision Makers....Pages 289-304
Descriptive and Prescriptive Models for Judgment and Decision Making: Implications for Knowledge Engineering....Pages 305-320
Knowledge Extraction from Experts in View of the Construction of Expert Systems....Pages 321-337
Common Sense Knowledge in Expert Systems....Pages 339-358
Back Matter....Pages 359-364

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Content:
Front Matter....Pages I-VIII
Toward a Unified Approach to the Study of Expert Judgment....Pages 1-16
Some Abstract Problems in Knowledge Representation....Pages 17-25
Principles of the Analytic Hierarchy Process....Pages 27-73
Policy Analysis and Decision Aids....Pages 75-84
Knowledge Systems, Expert Systems, and Risk Communication....Pages 85-103
Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence: Is Probability Epistemologically and Heuristically Adequate?....Pages 105-129
The Use of Causal Knowledge for Inferential Reasoning....Pages 131-146
Interactive Decision Support Systems for Enhancing Expert Judgment....Pages 147-153
Value-Driven Expert Systems for Decision Support....Pages 155-171
Expert Systems and Creativity....Pages 173-193
Expert Systems and Expert Judgment: A User’s Perspective....Pages 195-215
Very Simple Expert Systems: An Application of Judgment Analysis to Political Risk Analysis....Pages 217-240
Expert Systems and Intelligent Computer-Assisted-Instruction....Pages 241-249
Assessing the Effectiveness of Expert Teams....Pages 251-267
Expert Systems as Cognitive Tools for Human Decision Making....Pages 269-288
Psychological Characteristics of Expert Decision Makers....Pages 289-304
Descriptive and Prescriptive Models for Judgment and Decision Making: Implications for Knowledge Engineering....Pages 305-320
Knowledge Extraction from Experts in View of the Construction of Expert Systems....Pages 321-337
Common Sense Knowledge in Expert Systems....Pages 339-358
Back Matter....Pages 359-364
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