Ebook: Dynamic Modeling of Diseases and Pests
- Tags: Infectious Diseases, Simulation and Modeling, Medicine/Public Health general, Epidemiology, Computer Appl. in Life Sciences, Models and Principles
- Series: Modeling Dynamic Systems
- Year: 2009
- Publisher: Springer-Verlag New York
- Edition: 1
- Language: English
- pdf
Models help us understand the nonlinear dynamics of real-world processes by using the computer to mimic the actual forces that result in a system’s behavior. The growing complexity of human social systems, from individual behavior to that of entire populations makes us increasingly vulnerable to diseases and pests. The ecology of the disease agents and the pests when considered in this social context only adds to the complexity. The feedbacks, lags in the effects of our preventive actions and the randomness in the environment make understanding of these vulnerabilities seem insurmountable. The amount and pace of modern travel provides virus and pest alike with the means to quickly find new hosts in untouched human populations and the ecosystems.
We thus have compelling reasons to understand the dynamics of these combined systems. This book begins with simple examples of human epidemics and then insect dynamics. Next comes the models of ever more complex models of disease carried by interaction of the two. An invasive species model is followed by insect-ecosystem interactions. The general models of chaos and catastrophe are linked to models of disease and pest. The final model is a spatial dynamic spread of disease among a wild animal population.
By using the STELLA programs (runtime versions and digital forms of all models are available with the book) we show how with a minimum of mathematical preparation and programming experience, these complex processes can be simulated and their emergent properties discovered. The programs run on both Macintosh and PC based machines.
Models help us understand the nonlinear dynamics of real-world processes by using the computer to mimic the actual forces that result in a system’s behavior. The growing complexity of human social systems, from individual behavior to that of entire populations makes us increasingly vulnerable to diseases and pests. The ecology of the disease agents and the pests when considered in this social context only adds to the complexity. The feedbacks, lags in the effects of our preventive actions and the randomness in the environment make understanding of these vulnerabilities seem insurmountable. The amount and pace of modern travel provides virus and pest alike with the means to quickly find new hosts in untouched human populations and the ecosystems.
We thus have compelling reasons to understand the dynamics of these combined systems. This book begins with simple examples of human epidemics and then insect dynamics. Next comes the models of ever more complex models of disease carried by interaction of the two. An invasive species model is followed by insect-ecosystem interactions. The general models of chaos and catastrophe are linked to models of disease and pest. The final model is a spatial dynamic spread of disease among a wild animal population.
By using the STELLA programs (runtime versions and digital forms of all models are available with the book) we show how with a minimum of mathematical preparation and programming experience, these complex processes can be simulated and their emergent properties discovered. The programs run on both Macintosh and PC based machines.
Models help us understand the nonlinear dynamics of real-world processes by using the computer to mimic the actual forces that result in a system’s behavior. The growing complexity of human social systems, from individual behavior to that of entire populations makes us increasingly vulnerable to diseases and pests. The ecology of the disease agents and the pests when considered in this social context only adds to the complexity. The feedbacks, lags in the effects of our preventive actions and the randomness in the environment make understanding of these vulnerabilities seem insurmountable. The amount and pace of modern travel provides virus and pest alike with the means to quickly find new hosts in untouched human populations and the ecosystems.
We thus have compelling reasons to understand the dynamics of these combined systems. This book begins with simple examples of human epidemics and then insect dynamics. Next comes the models of ever more complex models of disease carried by interaction of the two. An invasive species model is followed by insect-ecosystem interactions. The general models of chaos and catastrophe are linked to models of disease and pest. The final model is a spatial dynamic spread of disease among a wild animal population.
By using the STELLA programs (runtime versions and digital forms of all models are available with the book) we show how with a minimum of mathematical preparation and programming experience, these complex processes can be simulated and their emergent properties discovered. The programs run on both Macintosh and PC based machines.
Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-viii
The Why and How of Dynamic Modeling....Pages 3-30
Basic Epidemic Models....Pages 31-48
Insect Dynamics....Pages 49-59
Malaria and Sickle Cell Anemia....Pages 63-81
Encephalitis....Pages 83-99
Chagas Disease....Pages 101-113
Lyme Disease....Pages 115-136
Chicken Pox and Shingles....Pages 137-151
Toxoplasmosis....Pages 153-160
The Zebra Mussel....Pages 161-170
Biological Control of Pestilence....Pages 171-203
Indirect Susceptible-Infected-Resistant Models of Arboviral Encephalitis Transmission....Pages 205-224
Chaos and Pestilence....Pages 225-236
Catastrophe and Pestilence....Pages 237-249
Spatial Pestilence Dynamics....Pages 251-279
Conclusion....Pages 283-284
Back Matter....Pages 285-290
Models help us understand the nonlinear dynamics of real-world processes by using the computer to mimic the actual forces that result in a system’s behavior. The growing complexity of human social systems, from individual behavior to that of entire populations makes us increasingly vulnerable to diseases and pests. The ecology of the disease agents and the pests when considered in this social context only adds to the complexity. The feedbacks, lags in the effects of our preventive actions and the randomness in the environment make understanding of these vulnerabilities seem insurmountable. The amount and pace of modern travel provides virus and pest alike with the means to quickly find new hosts in untouched human populations and the ecosystems.
We thus have compelling reasons to understand the dynamics of these combined systems. This book begins with simple examples of human epidemics and then insect dynamics. Next comes the models of ever more complex models of disease carried by interaction of the two. An invasive species model is followed by insect-ecosystem interactions. The general models of chaos and catastrophe are linked to models of disease and pest. The final model is a spatial dynamic spread of disease among a wild animal population.
By using the STELLA programs (runtime versions and digital forms of all models are available with the book) we show how with a minimum of mathematical preparation and programming experience, these complex processes can be simulated and their emergent properties discovered. The programs run on both Macintosh and PC based machines.
Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-viii
The Why and How of Dynamic Modeling....Pages 3-30
Basic Epidemic Models....Pages 31-48
Insect Dynamics....Pages 49-59
Malaria and Sickle Cell Anemia....Pages 63-81
Encephalitis....Pages 83-99
Chagas Disease....Pages 101-113
Lyme Disease....Pages 115-136
Chicken Pox and Shingles....Pages 137-151
Toxoplasmosis....Pages 153-160
The Zebra Mussel....Pages 161-170
Biological Control of Pestilence....Pages 171-203
Indirect Susceptible-Infected-Resistant Models of Arboviral Encephalitis Transmission....Pages 205-224
Chaos and Pestilence....Pages 225-236
Catastrophe and Pestilence....Pages 237-249
Spatial Pestilence Dynamics....Pages 251-279
Conclusion....Pages 283-284
Back Matter....Pages 285-290
....