Ebook: Intelligent Systems and Financial Forecasting

A fundamental objective of Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the creation of in­ telligent computer programs. In more modest terms AI is simply con­ cerned with expanding the repertoire of computer applications into new domains and to new levels of efficiency. The motivation for this effort comes from many sources. At a practical level there is always a demand for achieving things in more efficient ways. Equally, there is the technical challenge of building programs that allow a machine to do something a machine has never done before. Both of these desires are contained within AI and both provide the inspirational force behind its development. In terms of satisfying both of these desires there can be no better example than machine learning. Machines that can learn have an in-built effi­ ciency. The same software can be applied in many applications and in many circumstances. The machine can adapt its behaviour so as to meet the demands of new, or changing, environments without the need for costly re-programming. In addition, a machine that can learn can be ap­ plied in new domains with the genuine potential for innovation. In this sense a machine that can learn can be applied in areas where little is known about possible causal relationships, and even in circumstances where causal relationships are judged not to exist. This last aspect is of major significance when considering machine learning as applied to fi­ nancial forecasting.

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This book examines the design of an automated system for financial time series forecasting. It explores the level of automation which can be achieved by a system for modelling a given financial time series with the minimum of human intervention. It aims to help the reader understand the issues involved in setting neural network, or genetic algorithm parameters, and to develop methods to deal with the problems they raise in a practical manner. Intelligent Systems and Financial Forecasting will provide invaluable reading material for academic and industrial researchers (particularly those with an interest in the application of adaptive system technology), information technology consultants applying adaptive system techniques, and graduate/postgraduate students in machine learning, AI, business modelling and finance.

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This book examines the design of an automated system for financial time series forecasting. It explores the level of automation which can be achieved by a system for modelling a given financial time series with the minimum of human intervention. It aims to help the reader understand the issues involved in setting neural network, or genetic algorithm parameters, and to develop methods to deal with the problems they raise in a practical manner. Intelligent Systems and Financial Forecasting will provide invaluable reading material for academic and industrial researchers (particularly those with an interest in the application of adaptive system technology), information technology consultants applying adaptive system techniques, and graduate/postgraduate students in machine learning, AI, business modelling and finance.
Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-xii
From Learning Systems to Financial Modelling....Pages 1-17
Adaptive Systems and Financial Modelling....Pages 19-35
Feed-Forward Neural Network Modelling....Pages 37-53
Genetic Algorithms....Pages 55-80
Hypothesising Neural Nets....Pages 81-106
Automating Neural Net Time Series Analysis....Pages 107-123
The Data: The Long Gilt Futures Contract....Pages 125-136
Experimental Results....Pages 137-161
Summary, Conclusions and Future Work....Pages 163-177
Back Matter....Pages 179-227

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This book examines the design of an automated system for financial time series forecasting. It explores the level of automation which can be achieved by a system for modelling a given financial time series with the minimum of human intervention. It aims to help the reader understand the issues involved in setting neural network, or genetic algorithm parameters, and to develop methods to deal with the problems they raise in a practical manner. Intelligent Systems and Financial Forecasting will provide invaluable reading material for academic and industrial researchers (particularly those with an interest in the application of adaptive system technology), information technology consultants applying adaptive system techniques, and graduate/postgraduate students in machine learning, AI, business modelling and finance.
Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-xii
From Learning Systems to Financial Modelling....Pages 1-17
Adaptive Systems and Financial Modelling....Pages 19-35
Feed-Forward Neural Network Modelling....Pages 37-53
Genetic Algorithms....Pages 55-80
Hypothesising Neural Nets....Pages 81-106
Automating Neural Net Time Series Analysis....Pages 107-123
The Data: The Long Gilt Futures Contract....Pages 125-136
Experimental Results....Pages 137-161
Summary, Conclusions and Future Work....Pages 163-177
Back Matter....Pages 179-227
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