Ebook: Diagnosis and Prediction

This IMA Volume in Mathematics and its Applications DIAGNOSIS AND PREDICTION is one of the series based on the proceedings of a very successful 1997 IMA Summer Program on "Statistics in the Health Sciences. " I would like to thank Seymour Geisser of University of Minnesota, School of Statistics for his excellent work as organizer of the meeting and for editing the proceedings. I am grateful to Donald A. Berry, Duke Uni­ versity (Statistics); Patricia Grambsch, University of Minnesota (Biostatis­ tics); Joel Greenhouse, Carnegie Mellon University (Statistics); Nicholas Lange, Harvard Medical School (Brain Imaging Center, McLean Hospital); Barry Margolin, University of North Carolina-Chapel Hill (Biostatistics); Sandy Weisberg, University of Minnesota (Statistics); Scott Zeger, Johns Hopkins University (Biostatistics); and Marvin Zelen, Harvard School of Public Health (Biostatistics) for organizing the six weeks summer program. I also take this opportunity to thank the National Science Foundation (NSF) and the Army Research Office (ARO), whose financial support made the workshop possible. Willard Miller, Jr. , Professor and Director v PREFACE This volume contains refereed papers submitted by participants of the third week of a six week workshop on Statistics in the Health Sciences held by the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications in Minneapolis, Minnesota during July of 1997. This week was devoted to the closely related topics of Diagnosis and Prediction.

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This volume contains refereed papers submitted by participants of the third week of a six week workshop on Statistics in the Health Sciences held by the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications in Minneapolis, Minnesota during July of 1997. This week was devoted to the closely related topics of Diagnosis and Prediction. Theoretical and applied statisticians from universities, medical and public health schools, government and private research institutions, and pharmaceutical companies involved in prediction problems in the life and social sciences and in diagnostic and screening tests were brought together to discuss and exchange new results and information on these important issues. A number of papers with applications were presented and especially lively discussions ensued involving the critical issues and difficulties in using and interpreting diagnostic tests and implementing mass screening programs. Both frequentist and Bayesian approaches were employed. The importance of predicting or controlling future events such as survival, comparative survival and survival post intervention for a disease or even for certain biological or natural events is growing rapidly. This area of concern was also represented by participants who presented work that devised predictive methodology for a variety of problems mainly from a Bayesian perspective.

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This volume contains refereed papers submitted by participants of the third week of a six week workshop on Statistics in the Health Sciences held by the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications in Minneapolis, Minnesota during July of 1997. This week was devoted to the closely related topics of Diagnosis and Prediction. Theoretical and applied statisticians from universities, medical and public health schools, government and private research institutions, and pharmaceutical companies involved in prediction problems in the life and social sciences and in diagnostic and screening tests were brought together to discuss and exchange new results and information on these important issues. A number of papers with applications were presented and especially lively discussions ensued involving the critical issues and difficulties in using and interpreting diagnostic tests and implementing mass screening programs. Both frequentist and Bayesian approaches were employed. The importance of predicting or controlling future events such as survival, comparative survival and survival post intervention for a disease or even for certain biological or natural events is growing rapidly. This area of concern was also represented by participants who presented work that devised predictive methodology for a variety of problems mainly from a Bayesian perspective.
Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-ix
Comparision of Treatments for Otitis Media Using Multiple Diagnostic Methods....Pages 1-5
The Utility of the Hui-Walter Paradigm for the Evaluation of Diagnostic Test in the Analysis of Social Science Data....Pages 7-29
On the Optimal Administration of Multiple Screening Tests....Pages 31-64
Multinomial Prediction Intervals for Micro-Scale Highway Emissions....Pages 65-73
Survival Analysis for Interval Data....Pages 75-90
Bayesian Interim Analysis of Weibull Regression Models with Gamma Frailty....Pages 91-108
Monte Carlo Minimization for One Step Ahead Sequential Control....Pages 109-129
Multivariate Discrete Models for Longevity in Twins....Pages 131-140
Back Matter....Pages 141-148

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This volume contains refereed papers submitted by participants of the third week of a six week workshop on Statistics in the Health Sciences held by the Institute of Mathematics and its Applications in Minneapolis, Minnesota during July of 1997. This week was devoted to the closely related topics of Diagnosis and Prediction. Theoretical and applied statisticians from universities, medical and public health schools, government and private research institutions, and pharmaceutical companies involved in prediction problems in the life and social sciences and in diagnostic and screening tests were brought together to discuss and exchange new results and information on these important issues. A number of papers with applications were presented and especially lively discussions ensued involving the critical issues and difficulties in using and interpreting diagnostic tests and implementing mass screening programs. Both frequentist and Bayesian approaches were employed. The importance of predicting or controlling future events such as survival, comparative survival and survival post intervention for a disease or even for certain biological or natural events is growing rapidly. This area of concern was also represented by participants who presented work that devised predictive methodology for a variety of problems mainly from a Bayesian perspective.
Content:
Front Matter....Pages i-ix
Comparision of Treatments for Otitis Media Using Multiple Diagnostic Methods....Pages 1-5
The Utility of the Hui-Walter Paradigm for the Evaluation of Diagnostic Test in the Analysis of Social Science Data....Pages 7-29
On the Optimal Administration of Multiple Screening Tests....Pages 31-64
Multinomial Prediction Intervals for Micro-Scale Highway Emissions....Pages 65-73
Survival Analysis for Interval Data....Pages 75-90
Bayesian Interim Analysis of Weibull Regression Models with Gamma Frailty....Pages 91-108
Monte Carlo Minimization for One Step Ahead Sequential Control....Pages 109-129
Multivariate Discrete Models for Longevity in Twins....Pages 131-140
Back Matter....Pages 141-148
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