Ebook: Mobile Futures - beyond 3G

With third generation (3G) telecommunications under implementation in Europe, technology research focus has already turned to what comes next, the fourth generation (4G). Today, no clear consensus exists as to what 4G will eventually be and which technological challenges must be solved, however. Originally, 4G was considered to follow 3G sequentially and to emerge in the 2010-2015 time period as an ultra-high speed broadband wireless network. This vision is not yet very precise and not standardized; despite the fact that industry collaboration fora such as the WWRF and ITU, and IST supported conferences devote sessions to the long-term development of mobile communications systems. Moreover, these 4G networks are assumed to operate seamlessly and interconnected with other mobile devices. Generally, the 4G networks are assumed to have a cellular structure, building on the fundamental architecture of prior mobile generations. Meanwhile, a different vision of the future mobile communications system has emerged, with hotspot architecture and manifold standards that complement and compete with 3G. There seems to be a wide-spread notion that the next communications generation will be a multitechnology environment characterized by seamless interaction between and among terminals and networks, providing very high data rates (exceeding 100 Mb/s). However, the developments are characterized by high degrees of uncertainty regarding technology developments as well as markets and industry dynamics. This special issue of info presents five papers relating to conditions for future European success in telecommunications, both 3G and beyond. The papers move from present technologies toward the future, and treat such diverse areas as success factors in Japanese 2.5G mobile data services (Lindmark et al.), management perspectives on beyond 3G perspectives (Rodri´guez Casal et al.) and 3G and 4G business models (Ballon), European policy issues for 4G telecommunications (Weber et al.), and finally an overview of European Union technology research on areas relevant for 4G (Bohlin and Andersson). Most empirical work for this special issue was conducted in the EC/JRC/IPTS/ESTO projects “Prospects for the third generation mobile systems” and “The future of mobile technologies in EU: assessing 4G developments”. These studies provide well-researched reports on the current trends and strategic positioning of the stakeholders driving the creation of a mobile Europe (see the Appendix for an overview of project publications). There is a general consensus that data transmission will be of increasing importance for operators’ traffic and revenues in next generation telecommunications. In this light, a detailed understanding of what has made mobile data successful in e.g. Japan, is vital in the design of corporate strategies and regulatory policies in the mobile data field. To this end, Lindmark et al. thoroughly examine the Japanese i-mode case. The paper looks into explanatory factors provided by previous research, and accentuates the importance of a strong coordinating actor (NTT DoCoMo), healthy competition, and innovative service experimentation. The authors compare the i-mode technology with General Purpose Technologies, suggesting that the i-mode platform plays the role of “enabling technologies” opening up opportunities rather than offering complete solutions. The most immediate issue for the European telecommunications industry is the ongoing and imminent introduction of 3G telecommunications technologies and services. With enormous sums spent on licenses, research, and network infrastructure, 3G success is of crucial importance for the industry to recoup investments. The paper by Rodri´guez Casal et al. presents success factors for 3G, mainly building on the Japanese 3G case. In addition, The Authors look at the technology competition situation, and the role 3G will play in future network generations. The paper concludes that, despite competition, UMTS will lead the future of mobile communications in Europe. It presents the final recommendation to stimulate 3G commercialization by consolidating 3G as a solid platform for 4G developments, integrating coexisting applications and continuously incorporating emerging standards. The authors present a strong argument for an organic evolution from 3G to beyond 3G into 4G. The following paper, by Pieter Ballon, investigates the main trends and uncertainties that will define 4G mobile systems and services in Europe. The author sketches two scenarios for 4G developments: the so-called “immediate” 4G vision, consisting of wireless local area networks (WLANs) combined with other wireless access technologies, competing with 3G in the short term, and the so-called “linear” 4G vision, in which the 3G standard is not replaced until the end of its life cycle by an ultra-high speed broadband wireless network. Ballon concludes that which 4G business models are feasible will determine which scenario will materialize, and how the competitiveness of European actors will be influenced. The identified uncertainties are analyzed in three stages: current and emerging 3G and WLAN offerings in Europe, an overview of different and competing long-term visions and strategies regarding 4G of the main stakeholders in Europe and other regions, and an assessment of the relative position of Europe with respect to the USA and Asia for both the “immediate” and “linear” scenarios. The uncertainties in relation to 4G developments are also treated in the paper by Weber et al. – albeit from a policy perspective. Determined to make up for lost ground and establish strong positions for their respective industry actors in 4G communications, China, Korea (Republic of) and Japan have announced focused research efforts. In addition, the USA, currently leader in large parts of the wireless data communications industry (including WLAN), invests heavily to profit on 4G. Through reviews of 3G and 4G technology developments in Japan, Korea (Republic of), China and the USA, nine options for policy makers are presented. These include stimulating 2.5G and 3G data markets, analyzing actual spectrum use, continuing to analyze approaches competing with UMTS, estimating costs and benefits of new approaches to spectrum regulation, and evaluating steps towards frequency allocation. Strategic European research and development (R&D) is further discussed in the final paper (by Bohlin and Andersson), which looks into completed and ongoing European-wide research initiatives aiming at technology advances relevant for 4G communications infrastructures and terminals. After a presentation of the IST vision of future wireless systems is described, an overview of research activities concerning mobile communications of IST in FP6 and FP5 is presented. The review indicates that 3G will remain a strong base for mobile communications in the coming years. European research efforts are clearly building on 3G as a backbone infrastructure around which a multitude of applications will co-exist and co-evolve. Although there is major uncertainty regarding future wireless generations, and planning for 4G has proceeded further in other regions, the centrality of 3G in current European research activities reflects an ambition to consolidate efforts around this generation of mobile communications in the coming years, incorporating other emerging standards and technologies to the greatest extent possible. European research on future wireless systems can thus be characterized as an evolutionary path towards UMTS integration. Taken together, these five papers provide a comprehensive picture of recent developments and challenges in the European telecommunications industry. It is our belief that both regulators and managers will find this info special issue insightful and useful in policy and strategy discussions. Previously published in: Info, Volume 6, Number 6, 2004