Ebook: Assessing Low-Carbon Development in Nigeria : An Analysis of Four Sectors

The Federal Government of Nigeria has adopted an ambitious strategy to make Nigeria theworld’s 20th largest economy by 2020. Sustaining such a pace of growth will entail rapidexpansion of activity in key carbon-emitting sectors of the economy. In the absence ofpolicies to accompany economic growth with a reduced carbon footprint, emission ofgreenhouse gases would more than double in the next two decades.By consolidating and synthesizing the results of the sector-specific, in-depth analyses,volume 1 of this effort found options for Nigeria to achieve the development objectives ofVision 20:2020 and beyond, but stabilizing emissions at 2010 levels, and with domesticbenefits in the order of 2 percent of GDP. The present study, volume 2, is a collection of thetechnical reports on the four sectors of inquiry—agriculture and land use, oil and gas, power,and transport—that informed the preparation of the first volume.For agriculture and land use, the Government has set ambitious targets for increasing thedomestic agricultural production six-fold by 2020. The study analyzes the mitigation potentialof the agricultural sector within the constraint of meeting these growth targets. Benefitsinclude more productive and climate-resilient agriculture.For the oil and gas sector, the analysis evaluates how the country can continue to grow the oiland gas industry, making better use of Nigeria's gas resources, at the same time reducing thesector's carbon footprint.The analysis of the power sector shows how the country can expand power generation andbroaden access to electricity while reducing the associated emissions. This low-carbonscenario would enable Nigeria to achieve the same long-term development objectives, atlower overall cost through a more diversified mix of generation sources with a more balancedsupply across regions.Finally, this analysis assesses the expected growth in CO2 emissions from on-road transport under a normal business development scenario up to the year 2035 and identifies policy and other mitigation actions at national and local levels that would reduce this growth, resulting infuel economies, better air quality, and reduced congestion. Each sectoral analysis outlines several actions that the Nigerian Government could undertaketo facilitate the transition to a low-carbon economy.