Ebook: Price Expectations in Rising Inflation

Front Cover; Price Expectations in Rising Inflation; Copyright Page; Table of Contents; INTRODUCTION TO THE SERIES; Dedication; PREFACE; CHAPTER 1. INFLATION EXPECTATIONS: THE DIRECT APPROACH; 1.1. The Importance of Direct Estimates of Inflation Expectations; 1.2. A Brief Review of Direct Sources on Inflation Expectations; 1.3. The Mondo Economico Opinion Poll; 1.4. General Remarks on the Number and the Composition of Participants and Respondents to the Mondo Economico Surveys; 1.5. The First Series of Mondo Economico Surveys (2nd Semester 1952 to 2nd Semester 1977).;It is claimed in this book that expectations should not necessarily be treated as unobservable variables and that there is much to be learned from survey data. A unique data set is examined, the output of surveys conducted twice a year since 1952, among informed Italian businessmen and economic experts. The predictive accuracy, rationality and determinants of inflation expectations are investigated, following an extensive analysis of measurement issues. The estimate of inflation expectations are evaluated for both wholesale and consumer price changes, comparing them with those held by r.