Ebook: Can Oil Prices Explain the Real Appreciation of the Russian Ruble in 1998-2005?

CEFIR/NES WP83. 2006В исследовании сотрудников ГУ-ВШЭ показывается, что увеличение реального курса рубля в 1998-2005 годах нельзя полностью объяснить увеличением доходов от продажи нефти.Abstract
The paper investigates whether the 80% real appreciation of the Russian ruble in 1998-2005
can be explained by the increase in oil revenues in a calibrated general equilibrium model. It
is shown that the oil prices alone cannot account for the appreciation with forward-looking
permanent-income consumers, unless the oil price increase is assumed permanent. Accounting
for the increase in the volume of oil exports, however, can help, provided that the increase is
assumed to be permanent.