Ebook: Reducing CO2 Emissions: A Comparative Input-Output-Study for Germany and the UK

The global greenhouse effect may be one of the greatest challenges ever to face humankind. If fossil fuel use, and the consequent CO emissions, 2 continue to increase at their current trend, there is the possibility that over the next century there will be massive climate change and the flooding of coastal areas. The economics profession is beginning to respond to this challenge, through seeking to understand the economic processes which detennine the demand for energy, the proportion of this energy supplied by fossil fuels, and the policy instruments available for reducing fossil fuel demand while still supplying appropriate amounts of energy. This study is a contribution to that literature. We examine the impact of structural changes in the German and UK economies upon CO emissions 2 over the last two decades, and explore the potential for further structural change to reduce such emissions. This study is different from much of the current literature, in that we do not presuppose that the respective economies consist of only one, or a few, sectors. Instead, we analyse the interrelationships of 47 sectors for about 20 years, using input-output methods. We also deal with the effects of the changing sectoral structure of imports and exports of these two countries on the 'responsibility' for CO emissions. On the basis of this extensive evidence we have a solid 2 foundation to develop different scenarios to show how the 'Toronto target' of reducing CO emissions by 20% over 20 years can be achieved.

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The development of CO2 (Carbon Dioxide) emissions and econo- mic structural change are studied in a comprehensive input- output framework. First, the aims, concepts and methods of the study are outlined in Part I. Part II starts with the description of the problem of climate change and gives an empirical representation of the structure of CO2 emissions for Germany and the UK. In Part III the input-output frame- work is developed, and extended to the analysis of the pro- duction of CO2 emissions. Part IV then gives an outline of the German and UK data for studying CO2 emissions due to production activities and contains an interpretation of the data within the input-output framework. In Part V of the study, the concept for scenarios is developed. This includes a "minimum disruption" approach to scenarios analysis, and the application of this approach to scenarios for reducing CO2 emissions. Finally, in Part VI the policy implications of the scenarios are discussed.