Ebook: Inside a Modern Macroeconometric Model: A Guide to the Murphy Model

As Ken Wallis (1993) has pOinted out, all macroeconomic forecasters and policy analysts use economic models. That is, they have a way of going from assumptions about macroeconomic policy and the international environment, to a prediction of the likely future state of the economy. Some people do this in their heads. Increasingly though, forecasting and policy analysis is based on a formal, explicit model, represented by a set of mathematical equations and solved by computer. This provides a framework for handling, in a consistent and systematic manner, the ever-increasing amounts of relevant information. Macroeconometric modelling though, is an inexact science. A manageable model must focus only on the major driving forces in a complex economy made up of millions of households and fIrms. International economic agencies such as the IMF and OECD, and most treasuries and central banks in western countries, use macroeconometric models in their forecasting and policy analysis. Models are also used for teaching and research in universities, as well as for commercial forecasting in the private sector.

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This book is unique. It gives a clear and systematic account of the economic basis of every equation in a major 100-equation macro model, plus full documentation of parameters and simulation properties. Results are explained in detail with the help of miniature models that capture the important macrodynamics as well as the steady-state properties of the model. Microeconomic underpinnings are stressed throughout. This book will be particularly useful to practitioners of policy economics and forecasting, as well as to upper-level undergraduate and graduate students in economics and econometrics.